Today’s 2+ total bases board starts with hitters carrying current contact quality into matchups built for extra-base damage. The focus stays on last 10 games, pitcher arsenal, lineup role, scoring context, park shape, and game environment.
Every qualifying ball in play mentioned below comes from that hitter’s last 10 games. That keeps the contact references tied to fresh swing quality, recent damage indicators, and the specific two-base paths each player brings into today’s slate.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ TB | -105 | Crow-Armstrong takes 19 HR, 50 RBI, 23 SB, a .293 AVG, .908 OPS, 22% HR rate, 90.4 EV, 49.6% hard-hit, 36.9% sweet spot, 10.7% barrels, and a .290/.374/.550 split against righties into Kremer’s splitter/four-seam/sinker/curveball mix, with Kremer’s 3.18 ERA hiding an 11.9% barrel rate and a warm Camden Yards window before storm risk. |
| Yordan Alvarez 2+ TB | -115 | Alvarez carries 29 HR, 67 RBI, a .318 AVG, 1.056 OPS, 94.8 EV, 53.7% hard-hit, 42.9% sweet spot, 18.8% barrels, and a .283 AVG with eight HR against lefties into Griffin’s cutter/four-seam/sweeper/curve/change/sinker mix, with Griffin’s 2.87 ERA paired with a 4.02 xERA, .413 xSLG, 10.5% barrels, and humid Nationals Park air before late storm risk. |
| Mickey Moniak 2+ TB | +135 | Moniak carries 15 HR, a .282 AVG, .935 OPS, 33% HR rate, 13.3% barrels, 42.7% hard-hit, 89.6 EV, and a .297/.353/.652 split against righties into Sasaki’s four-seam/splitter/slider mix, with Sasaki sitting at 5.40 ERA, 90.4 EV allowed, 45.6% hard-hit, 12.9% barrels, and a clear Dodger Stadium forecast around 80 degrees. |
| Nick Kurtz 2+ TB | -105 | Kurtz carries 20 HR, 66 RBI, a .271 AVG, .915 OPS, 25% HR rate, 94.1 EV, 58.7% hard-hit, 39.3% sweet spot, 18.4% barrels, and a .274/.434/.543 split against righties into Melton’s four-seam/slider/cutter/splitter mix, with Melton’s 2.05 ERA, 0.98 ERA last three, 5.7% barrel rate, and warm Comerica air creating the slate’s sharpest hitter-talent versus pitcher-form collision. |
| Ketel Marte 2+ TB | +120 | Marte carries 17 HR, 54 RBI, a .267 AVG, 11.4% barrels, 46.3% hard-hit, 91.7 EV, 34% sweet spot, 74.7 mph bat speed, and 26 extra-base hits against righties into King’s sinker/changeup/sweeper/four-seam mix, with King allowing only 87.7 EV, 34.4% hard-hit, and 8.5% barrels in a cooler Petco forecast that demands clean gap contact. |
In-depth analysis below.
Prop bet analysis
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ total bases (-105)
Crow-Armstrong carries the best five-category floor on the slate. He enters with a .293 average, 19 HR, 50 RBI, and .908 OPS, while also adding speed pressure every time he reaches. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .290 average, 14 HR, 34 RBI, and 266 plate appearances. That split gives the bet two clean paths: one extra-base hit or two balls finding grass.
PCA is at 90.4 mph EV, 49.6% hard-hit, 36.9% sweet spot, 10.7% barrels, and a 20-degree average launch angle. That is a mature total-bases profile, especially for a hitter with top-end sprint speed and pull-side lift. His last three games against right-handed pitching add useful short-window confirmation: 3-for-6, two walks, one hit-by-pitch, one RBI, and a .667 OBP.
Dean Kremer adds complexity without killing the play. Baltimore lists him for the matchup, and his 3.18 ERA looks tidy. The contact table carries a pressure point. Kremer has allowed .426 xwOBAcon, 87.6 mph EV, 33.3% hard-hit, 35.7% sweet spot, and 11.9% barrels. The barrel rate is the opening. His contact suppression works until PCA lifts one in the right lane. Camden Yards also gives PCA the liveliest early weather among the East Coast plays: 82°F near 6 p.m., 80°F around 7 p.m., then storms later. The first three plate appearances carry the value.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-115)
Yordan is the cleanest pure-hitter thesis. He enters with a .318 average, 29 HR, 67 RBI, and 1.056 OPS, while sitting near the top of the sport’s offensive board. He also carries a .283 average, eight HR, 17 RBI, 52 total bases, and a .905 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. The lefty-lefty tag lowers comfort, not conviction. His career split against lefties is even louder: .313 average, 59 HR, and 188 RBI across 1,074 plate appearances.
The batted-ball case is monstrous. Yordan owns 94.8 mph EV, 53.7% hard-hit, 42.9% sweet spot, and 50 barrels. Few 2+ TB bets offer that much controlled violence. He also just turned the Rays series into an MVP exhibit, with a two-homer walk-off game and six RBI during Houston’s comeback win. That recent form gives the season-long thunder a current pulse.
Foster Griffin’s surface profile demands respect, yet the undercarriage gives Yordan room. Griffin is listed for Washington, and his 2.87 ERA comes with a 4.02 xERA, .311 xwOBA, .413 xSLG, 37.6% hard-hit, and 10.5% barrels. His seven-pitch mix includes cutter 32.1%, four-seamer 17.1%, sweeper 14.5%, curveball 10.5%, changeup 10.4%, sinker 10.3%, and splitter 5.1%. That diversity can steal counts, yet it also forces him across multiple damage bands. Nationals Park opens warm at 82°F around 7 p.m., with storms looming later. Yordan’s best window arrives early, before weather and bullpen usage get messy.
Mickey Moniak 2+ total bases (+135)
Moniak is the loudest total-bases play because the price still trails the profile. He brings a .282 average, 15 HR, 37 RBI, and .935 OPS into a clean Dodger Stadium night. Against right-handed pitching, the shape gets sharper: .297 average, 13 HR, 30 RBI, and 173 plate appearances. That split carries enough extra-base density to support 2+ TB without demanding a homer. Activate Up to $15 Cash Back
The recent form helps the bet breathe. Moniak just produced a single, double, homer, and three runs against Miami, then stayed involved as Colorado snapped an 11-game Dodger Stadium losing streak. His season contact profile backs the surge: 89.6 mph EV, 42.7% hard-hit, 31.5% sweet spot, and 13.3% barrels. That barrel rate is the key number here. A hitter clearing 13% barrels with plus-money 2+ TB pricing deserves respect.
The matchup gives him the cleanest pitcher collision of the five. Roki Sasaki is listed for Los Angeles with a 5.40 ERA, and his damage indicators remain unstable. He has allowed 90.4 mph EV, 45.6% hard-hit, 33.6% sweet spot, and 12.9% barrels. That is a dangerous batted-ball table against a left-handed bat slugging righties. The weather adds no hidden tax: sunny at first pitch, 80°F at 7 p.m., clear late, and no delay signal. Moniak is the best blend of price, heat, pitcher contact, and park comfort.
Nick Kurtz 2+ total bases (-105)
Kurtz has the biggest raw-contact engine on the board. He enters with a .271 average, 20 HR, 66 RBI, and .915 OPS, and the right-handed pitching split fully supports the wager. Against righties, he has a .274 average, .434 OBP, .543 SLG, .978 OPS, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 58 walks, 113 total bases, and 27 extra-base hits in 267 plate appearances. That is a serious 2+ TB résumé.
The contact profile is absurd for a rookie-age bat. Kurtz owns 94.1 mph EV, 58.7% hard-hit, 39.3% sweet spot, 18.4% barrels, 12.7-degree launch, 78.3 mph bat speed, and 50.8% ideal attack angle. The line-drive rate sits at 26.9%, with 54 line drives and 37 barrels. That combination gives him double, homer, and missile-single routes. It also explains why he can cash 2+ TB without needing a full offensive eruption from Oakland.
Troy Melton keeps this fifth despite the hitter profile. Detroit lists Melton with a 4-1 record and 2.05 ERA, and his recent run has sharpened the concern. He has posted a 0.98 ERA across his last three starts, with 18 strikeouts and four walks over 18.1 innings. The contact table supports the surface: 89.0 mph EV, 35.0% hard-hit, 27.6% sweet spot, and 5.7% barrels. That is the best pitcher form among these five matchups. The weather helps Kurtz, with Detroit at 85°F around 7 p.m. and 80°F by 9 p.m. The play stays live, but it carries the thinnest margin.
Ketel Marte 2+ total bases (+120)
Marte is the most elegant price play. He enters with a .267 average, 17 HR, 54 RBI, and .810 OPS, and the season line undersells the contact quality. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .254 average, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 14 doubles, two triples, 112 total bases, and 26 extra-base hits in 276 plate appearances. That is enough volume for plus-money 2+ TB, even inside a cooler Petco setup.
The underlying profile makes the wager credible. Marte owns a .376 xwOBA, .353 xBACON, 91.7 mph EV, 46.3% hard-hit, 34.0% sweet spot, 11.4% barrels, and 74.7 mph bat speed. That is not empty contact. It is compact, switch-hitting authority with enough bat speed to beat velocity and enough barrel skill to punish mistakes. His July 6 triple also came at 105.6 mph, with a 19-degree launch angle and 398-foot distance. That swing shape is tailor-made for total bases.
Michael King is the tax. San Diego lists him for this matchup, and his 2026 profile includes a 3.52 ERA, .288 wOBA allowed, .329 xwOBA, .406 xSLG, 87.7 mph EV, 34.4% hard-hit, 33.0% sweet spot, and 8.5% barrels. He rarely hands hitters cheap barrels. Marte’s edge comes from price, switch-side balance, and one-swing gap authority. Petco sits around 70°F at first pitch, mostly clear, and cooler than the other outdoor games. This is still playable, though it needs Marte’s cleanest contact.
