Two underperforming American League clubs will meet this afternoon in Seattle. Despite a flurry of offseason moves, the Orioles (35-40) have fallen well short of expectations so far. Still, Baltimore remains just 1.5 games out of a wildcard spot. It’s a similar story for the Mariners (38-37), just over .500 following a deep postseason run in 2025. Regardless, the AL West leaders remain firmly in contention for a World Series title.
The Mariners are favorites (-149) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Baltimore and Seattle on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Mariners pick, best bet
- Orioles vs. Mariners under 7.5 runs (-102): Baz, who has pitched well recently, gets to face a Mariners lineup potentially missing over half of their starters. As for Woo, he’s been dominant when pitching at cavernous T-Mobile Park. Expect both pitchers to keep these offenses in check.
Orioles vs. Mariners prediction, preview
The biggest flaw on this O’s roster is the pitching staff. Although Baltimore has a few talented arms, consistency has proven elusive throughout the first half. Still, offseason pickup Shane Baz has done his job in 2026. Over 82.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 67 strikeouts (7.4 K/9). The right-hander comes into this one having surrendered two earned runs or less in each of his last five outings. To boot, he’s been better on the road (3.83 ERA) than at home (4.41).
The downside for Baz is that he’s outperformed most of his numbers this season. He ranks inside the 30th percentile or worse in xERA (4.74), xBA (.270), average exit velocity (90.4 MPH), whiff rate (21.0%) and strikeout rate (18.9%). Avoiding the long ball against a powerful Mariners lineup will be crucial in this one. They’ve smacked 96 home runs this season, seventh-most in baseball. Granted, Seattle may not be at full strength. Randy Arozarena (hamstring) and Brendan Donovan (groin) are on the injured list. Luke Raley (back), Josh Naylor (shin/wrist) and Julio Rodriguez (hamstring) are all questionable. To make matters worse, superstar catcher Cal Raleigh (66 wRC+) has looked like a shell of himself.
Even if the offense is sputtering, the Mariners have a shot thanks to Bryan Woo. The right-hander did get rocked for seven runs over five innings last week on the road in Baltimore. Overall, it’s been a slightly disappointing season for the All-Star. Through 82.0 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 4.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 79 strikeouts (8.7 K/9). Still, it’s likely just a matter of time until Woo gets back on track. He sits within the 75th percentile in xERA (3.29), chase rate (34.5%) and walk rate (4.6%). To boot, the 26-year-old has performed much better at home (2.93) than on the road (5.93). Seattle’s T-Mobile Park is the league’s friendliest venue for pitchers per Savant.
In many ways, the Orioles are the inverse of Woo. Their offense is putting up the 11th-fewest runs per game on the road (4.24). In addition, the O’s are averaging the eighth-most walks per game (3.80). That level of plate discipline might be difficult to replicate against a pitcher with elite command such as Woo. To boot, an early game following a night contest tends to bring out sluggish play on both sides. Baltimore batters have a .680 OPS on the road against right-handed pitching, 20th in baseball this season.
Best Bet: Orioles vs. Mariners under 7.5 runs (-104)
Advanced metrics aside, Baz comes into this one on a roll. On Thursday, he’ll get to face a Mariners lineup missing a handful of talented starters. As for Woo, he’s far more comfortable pitching at the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. A Baltimore lineup that depends on power and patience could find both hard to come by in Seattle.
