For most baseball fans, seeing the Braves (45-23) dominate the National League doesn’t come as a shock. Atlanta is battle-tested, with a roster full of former All-Stars. The biggest surprise of the season is undoubtedly the White Sox (36-31). After years of ineptitude, Chicago’s youthful roster is powering its way towards the top of the AL Central. Which of these postseason contenders will come out on top tonight?
The Braves are favorites (-119) over the White Sox, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s interleague showdown between Atlanta and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- Braves ML (-119): Kay, for all his recent success, is due for some major regression. On a similar level, the same might be true for Perez. However, the White Sox could be without two of their top bats in Murakami and Montgomery. Facing their first sweep of the season, expect the Braves to salvage one on the road tonight.
Braves vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Toeing the slab for the visitors this evening will be Martin Perez. The 15th-year pro has been a pleasant surprise for Atlanta, emerging as a reliable arm at the backend of this rotation. Through 56.2 innings this season, he’s accounted for a 3.02 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 47 strikeouts (7.5 K/9). The veteran is a bit of an anomaly in terms of advanced metrics. Per Savant, he ranks inside the 50th percentile in every major category other than ground ball rate. More concerning, Perez has been far better at home (1.67 ERA) than he has been on the road (4.25 ERA). Chicago batters have posted the fourth-highest OPS against left-handed pitching this season (.765).
That’s not to say Atlanta’s starter will get shelled. Still, it’s reasonable to think this above average White Sox offense can do some damage tonight. The team ranks eighth in runs scored (318), fourth in home runs (91) and fifth in OPS (.739) this season. Even the absence of slugger Munetaka Murakami (hamstring) hasn’t slowed the South Siders down. They’ve scored 52 runs over their last ten games, tied for 12th-most in baseball during that time. Unfortunately, star infielder Colson Montgomery (back) might not suit up this evening. He didn’t suit up during Wednesday’s 2-1 Chicago victory.
Pitching depth hasn’t been a strength for the young Sox. Anthony Kay will get the nod tonight at Rate Field. Over 13 appearances (11 starts) this season, he’s notched a 4.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 46 strikeouts (6.8 K/9). Granted, the 31-year-old has been pitching better of late. He’s surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his previous seven outings. The one blemish came during the southpaw’s most recent matchup, a four-inning, six-run showing in Philadelphia.
Unfortunately for Kay, he’s outperformed his metrics by a wide margin this season. A 5.87 xERA, .282 xBA and meager 16.5 K% suggest that this isn’t an arm Chicago should trust long term. Thursday’s meeting with Atlanta could send the veteran crashing down to Earth. The Braves rank fourth in runs scored (350), third in homers (92) and third in OPS (.751). A quick look at this lineup is enough to strike fear into any opposing hurler. That’s especially true for Kay; Atlanta’s .740 OPS against left-handed pitching is eighth-best in the majors. Over his past ten games, former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. (1.046 OPS) is starting to heat up. He’s been supported during that stretch by Mauricio Dubón (1.030 OPS) Matt Olson (.990 OPS) and Ozzie Albies (.871 OPS).
Best Bet: Braves ML (-119)
The Braves have yet to suffer a series sweep this season. That alone suggests that the odds are in their favor on Thursday. Perez is by no means an ace, but he’ll benefit from the potential absence of both Murakami and Montgomery. Equipped with a deeper lineup and better pitcher, Atlanta has the edge tonight.
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