Bristol is a concrete bullring that turns 500 laps into a demolition derby with a trophy at the end. It’s also where the Chase just got interesting — Kyle Larson’s Gateway win cut Denny Hamlin’s lead from 49 points to nine. Eight races remain, every point counts the same, and Bristol has a way of deciding which contenders are actually built for the fight.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the Enjoy Illinois 300
Race Winner — Denny Hamlin +500
The points leader has been the best car in the field all year. Four wins, 1,094 points, and a season-long wARP of 7.18. Nobody else in the Chase is close on that number. Weighted average running position favors closers, and that’s all that matters when betting on winners. Hamlin won at Bristol in the spring of 2024 and has finished outside the top 10 at The Last Great Colosseum just once in his last five tries. His recent short-track form matches: seventh at New Hampshire, fifth at Iowa, fourth at Richmond. Ninth at Gateway looks like a mild dip, but Gateway wasn’t mild (18 cautions).
The pressure is on. Hamlin needs to do more than protect his lead in the standings. He needs to separate because Kyle Larson — the defending Cup Series Champion — is heating up. Bristol is one of Larson’s best tracks. Hamlin cannot afford to let Yung Money take over and run away with the 2026 title.
Race Winner — Kyle Larson +450
If not Hamlin, then it’s his friend and rival, Yung Money. The greatest racer on the planet has been in the mix every week, but he couldn’t seal the deal. That changed at Gateway. “The Cup contenders done messed up,” as they say in the NASCAR world. They should have never let Larson hang around. Now they’re going to pay.
Larson ended a 51-race winless drought at Gateway and vaulted from seventh to second in the standings. He’s now nine points behind Hamlin with eight races left and zero cut lines to survive. Every point counts, and wins pay a lot. Larson wins a lot at Bristol.
For those old enough to remember, Larson burst onto the scene over a decade ago by dueling the greatest Bristol driver ever, Kyle Busch, in a classic Nationwide Series race at the bullring. The No. 5 Hendrick Chevy driver has never lost his touch. He’s won two of the last four at the steeply-banked short track, and has earned a top-5 finish in six of the last seven.
