Despite sitting at the bottom of the NL East, the Mets (28-35) earned an impressive 5-0 victory on Friday. It’s yet another awful loss for the Padres (32-30), losers in ten of their last 11 contests. Now, New York will attempt to clinch a series victory with ace Nolan McLean on the bump. Can San Diego earn a much-needed win at Petco Park tonight?
The Mets are favorites (-125) over the Padres, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between New York and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Mets pick, best bet
- Mets ML (-125): Right now, it’s impossible to have any faith in this Padres offense. That’s especially true against one of baseball’s most talented hurlers in McLean. On the other side, Canning’s nightmarish season makes him a name to avoid. Add it all up, and there’s far more reason for bettors to back New York tonight.
Padres vs. Mets prediction, preview
Facing his former employer, it’ll be Griffin Canning on the mound for the home team tonight. So far, it’s been a disastrous 2026 campaign for the right-hander. Over six starts (27.2 IP), he’s produced a 7.16 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 27 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). No matter how you shake it, those are outrageously bad numbers. However, there is a glimmer of hope for Canning; he’s allowed only three earned runs in each of his previous three outings. Still, there’s not a lot to love here. The 30-year-old sits within the bottom 15th percentile among qualified starters in chase rate (24.5%), walk rate (12.5%) and hard-hit rate (48.7%).
Granted, it’s not as if the Mets have it all figured out at the plate either. They’re averaging 4.06 runs per game this season, eighth-worst in baseball. With Francisco Lindor (calf) sidelined, the only name that strikes fear in this lineup is Juan Soto (155 wRC+). Still, the Amazin’s have been respectable on offense as of late. They’ve scored 50 runs over their last ten games, 14th-best in the majors during that stretch. Canning’s most-used pitch is the changeup (27%). Against that offering, New York batters have a .277 expected batting average and .321 expected on-base percentage.
The Mets will hand the ball to McLean this evening in SoCal. It’s early, but the rookie hasn’t quite lived up to fan expectations. Over 66.1 innings pitched, he’s posted a 4.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 77 strikeouts (10.4 K/9). Still, that’s due primarily to a pair of horrendous outings in May against Cincinnati and Washington. McLean has allowed three earned runs or less in ten of 12 appearances this season. Per Savant, he’s due for some positive regression going forward. The righty has a 3.38 xERA, .214 xBA and 27.9% strikeout rate.
McLean won’t even need to be at his best in order to toss a gem tonight. The Padres are baseball’s lowest-scoring offense, averaging just 3.79 runs per game. To boot, the Friars also rank last in batting average (.215), wOBA (.289) and wOBAcon (.331). Big bats such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merril have been inconsistent at best. If New York’s prized hurler has any weakness, it’s command (3.3 BB/9). However, San Diego is only 22nd in the majors with 3.23 walks per game. In addition, the Padres are putting up an MLB-worst .653 OPS vs. right-handed pitching.
Best Bet: Mets ML (-125)
McLean is better than he’s shown over the past month. Five innings of one-run ball in Miami should give the 24-year-old momentum heading into this one. It helps that San Diego couldn’t hit its way out of a paper bag right now. Even against a lackluster Mets lineup, Canning has shown nothing to warrant any level of trust. With the superior starter and offense, New York makes plenty of sense as modest favorites.
