Saturday’s MLB schedule includes all 30 teams on the scoreboard throughout the day. Most of the action is in the afternoon with a handful of games under the lights. With warm temperatures in several spots and the wind blowing out, it should be another good day for offense and big flies. My top home run props to target this Saturday are Corbin Carroll, Corey Seager and Jake Bauers.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Carroll takes on Zack Littell in a great home run matchup. He has 4 HR, 13.6% barrel rate and 64.4% hard-hit rate over his last 18 games. |
| Corey Seager | Texas Rangers | Seager returned with a smash on Friday and has a 16.1% barrel rate on the season. He’s in a good matchup against the struggling Tanner Bibee, who lefties have 9 HR, a .231 ISO, and a 14.4% barrel rate against this season. |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | The weather at Coors is homer-happy, and the Rockies will likely give recently recalled Zach Agnos bulk work or the start. Bauers has 2 HR in his last 6 games and 4 in his last 20 while hitting .310 with a .420 wOBA and 17.6% barrel rate. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: analysis
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+330)
Carroll went 0-for-3 in the series opener against Washington, but he had three hits and a homer on Thursday against the Dodgers. He homered twice in the Dodgers series and is up to nine long balls on the season.
The lefty has a 51.2% hard-hit rate on the season with a 12.5% barrel rate, but over his last 18 games, he has a 64.4% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate. Carroll has hit seven of his nine homers against righties and six of his nine homers at Chase Field. He has a .325 ISO at home, compared to just a .194 ISO on the road.
He’ll get a favorable matchup on Saturday afternoon against Zack Littell of the Nationals. Littell is always a strong matchup to attack for home run props after serving up 36 homers in 32 starts last season and 15 homers in just 12 games (eight starts) this year. He didn’t give up a homer in either of his last two starts, but has given up eight homers in just 24 2/3 innings this season on the road. Lefties have hit 12 home runs against Littell this season, with a .320 ISO, .402 wOBA and a 13.0% barrel rate.
Chase Field is one of the more offense-friendly indoor parks on the board, and Carroll should be set up for success against Littell on Saturday.
Corey Seager to hit a home run (+378)
After missing just over three weeks with a back injury, Seager was back in the lineup for the Rangers on Friday against the Guardians. He got off to a quick start in his return with a two-run homer in the sixth inning off lefty Parker Messick that turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead in Texas’s 3-2 victory.
Seager has a much better matchup on paper in the second game of the series against Guardians’ righty Tanner Bibee. Bibee is 0-7 in 13 starts with a 4.57 ERA and 13 homers allowed in 13 games. In his five road starts, he has served up five homers in 25 2/3 innings with a 5.96 ERA and 4.71 FIP. Lefties like Seager have hit nine of the 13 homers he has allowed and have a .333 wOBA, .231 ISO and 14.4% barrel rate against him.
Seager has hit eight homers on the year, with seven homers against righties like Bibee. Even though his numbers have been a little down overall, he still has a healthy 16.1% barrel rate and enough potential to go yard to make him a solid option in Saturday’s home run props.
Jake Bauers to hit a home run (+358)
The Brewers are in Denver, taking on the Rockies at Coors Field, where the temperatures are warm with the wind blowing out. Friday night’s series opener turned into a Coors classic late, with 16 runs scored in Milwaukee’s 9-7 win. The action didn’t really get going until late, though, with a total of 12 runs in the ninth and tenth innings. Bauers had a pair of doubles and three RBI in the win, but no Brewers hit home runs, even at elevation.
Bauers leads the Brew Crew with 10 homers on the season and has been heating up over his last 24 games. He has hit five of those 10 homers during that span while hitting .321 with a .432 wOBA, a 55% hard-hit rate, and an 18.3% barrel rate. His last homer was this smash against the Giants:
He’ll take on the Rockies in some sort of bullpen game with Tanner Gordon (hip) landing on the injured list instead of starting this contest as originally planned. Zach Agnos was recalled and could start or work in long relief. In his 16 games for the Rockies this year, Agnos has a 7.78 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. He has allowed six homers in 37 innings, including four homers in 21 1/3 innings at home.
The Brewers offer lots of home run potential in the matchup, and Bauers has been one of their best power hitters this season, so getting him at over 3:1 feels like good value Saturday night.
