Cincinnati and St. Louis enter Friday separated by almost nothing in the standings, but the pitching matchup changes the texture. The Reds are 31-30 overall and 15-14 away from home. The Cardinals are 32-28 overall and 16-16 at Busch Stadium. Cincinnati brings the louder season power profile, with 77 home runs and a .395 slugging percentage. St. Louis has the cleaner contact base, with a .240 average, .317 OBP, and 484 hits. The Cardinals also enter off an 11-hit, 5-3 win over Texas. Alec Burleson drove in three runs, Jordan Walker went 3-for-4, and St. Louis finally generated sustained pressure after a thin stretch. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Reds prediction, preview
Brady Singer gives that lineup a clear opening. He is 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 70 hits, 36 strikeouts, 16 walks, and 16 home runs allowed across 51 innings. The indicators support every inch of the damage. Singer owns a 6.89 FIP, 6.51 xERA, 2.82 HR/9, .323 average allowed, .604 slugging allowed, and .422 wOBA allowed. The recent form is even harsher. Across his last five starts, he has allowed 30 hits, 19 earned runs, 11 homers, and nine walks in 22 innings. That is not one bad inning skewing the board. It is five straight turns of traffic, elevated contact, and instant crooked-inning risk.
Kyle Leahy keeps this from becoming a simple Cardinals side play. He is 5-3 with a 4.25 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 64 hits, 46 strikeouts, 22 walks, and eight home runs allowed over 55 innings. His May work improved, with a 2.81 ERA, 24 strikeouts, and two homers allowed across 25.2 innings. Cincinnati still saw him well on May 23, tagging him for five earned runs, seven hits, two homers, and two walks over five innings. Leahy’s season-long contact profile leaves room for a Reds counterpunch. He has not dominated enough to justify laying a heavy St. Louis moneyline price.
The Cardinals’ best offensive path starts with Walker. He is hitting .291/.355/.537 with 15 home runs, 44 RBI, a .387 wOBA, .370 xwOBA, 14.1% barrel rate, 51.5% hard-hit rate, and 94.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the cleanest punishment profile against Singer’s homer leakage. Burleson gives St. Louis a different kind of pressure. He owns a .287/.352/.443 line, 15 doubles, seven homers, 42 RBI, a .373 xwOBA, and only 41 strikeouts in 256 plate appearances. Iván Herrera adds a .382 OBP, 34 walks, 12 doubles, seven homers, and a .364 xwOBA. That trio gives St. Louis traffic, conversion, and power.
Reds vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
Cincinnati still has enough individual bats to keep the total live. JJ Bleday is hitting .289/.383/.620 with 10 homers, a .425 wOBA, .399 xwOBA, 14.0% barrel rate, and 50.0% hard-hit rate. He is also 4-for-12 with two doubles, one homer, and a 1.135 OPS across the Reds’ last five games against right-handed pitching. Spencer Steer brings a .278/.353/.464 line, 12 doubles, nine homers, a .379 xwOBA, and a 14.1% barrel rate. Sal Stewart has 12 doubles, 12 homers, a .364 xwOBA, and a 15.3% barrel rate. Nathaniel Lowe adds nine homers, a .377 xwOBA, and a 14.1% barrel rate. Elly De La Cruz’s hamstring injury still matters. It removes Cincinnati’s most dynamic pressure bat and lowers the Reds’ margin for empty innings.
The bullpen and market shape push this toward St. Louis scoring. Cincinnati has lost Graham Ashcraft and Emilio Pagán from its relief mix, and Singer has forced too much early stress. The Reds’ pen also brings enough recent volatility to make a full-game Cardinals number stronger than a five-inning angle. St. Louis’ bullpen has its own usage concerns, which makes Cardinals ML -144 and F5 -145 tougher to justify. The full-game over 9 is viable, but it needs Cincinnati to solve Leahy and survive without De La Cruz. Cardinals team total over 4.5 at -115 isolates the clearest weakness on the board. Singer has allowed 70 hits and 16 homers in 51 innings, and St. Louis has the right traffic-plus-slug profile to extend that damage.
Best bet: Cardinals team total over 4.5 (-115).
Projected score: Cardinals 6, Reds 4.
Best bet: Cardinals TT o4.5 runs (-115) vs. Reds
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