In the noon window of the Saturday Week 3 college football slate, the Bowling Green Falcons will take on the Iowa State Cyclones. This is just the third matchup between these two programs in their history, and the first since 1979. Iowa State leads the all-time series 2-0.
Looking at the odds, Iowa State enters as a 23.5-point favorite with -2400 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Bowling Green is +1200 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 3 CFB matchup.
Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Preview
Bowling Green Falcons
After a 4-8 season last year, the Bowling Green Falcons have dropped their first two games this season in an uninspiring fashion. Eddie George is in his second season as head coach, but he hasn’t gotten off to the start he wanted.
Bowling Green fell 20-13 to Tarleton State in the season opener. The Falcons led the time-of-possession battle 34:53-25:07 but lost the yardage battle 464-366. On the plus side, Bowling Green fell behind 17-0 in the second quarter and battled back to make the matchup competitive. They cut the lead to seven points before Tarleton State knocked through a field goal in the fourth quarter and put the game out of reach. Bowling Green had multiple chances to tie the game but turned the ball over twice and couldn’t generate consistent offense.
More recently, Nebraska dominated Bowling Green in a 56-7 victory. The Falcons were held scoreless for the first three quarters and managed just 169 yards of total offense. They went 2-for-12 on third-down opportunities and turned the ball over twice in a game that quickly slipped out of reach.
Through their opening two games, quarterback Jay Kastantin has completed 34 of his 46 pass attempts for 346 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Jeremiah Scoby leads the receiving production with 121 yards through the air, while Leo Kemp has caught the lone touchdown so far this year. Austin Dendy and Nakai Amachree lead the rushing attack.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State Cyclones peaked at 12th in the AP Poll last season, but finished with an 8-4 overall record. They lost four consecutive games midseason, dimming the outlook for the year. This led to change, with Matt Campbell stepping away to accept the job at Penn State and taking much of the Cyclones’ core roster with him. Jimmy Rogers has taken over as head coach after most recently coaching at Washington State, and the program is off to a 1-1 start.
Iowa State kicked off the season with a comfortable 38-10 win over Southeast Missouri State. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead and largely kept Southeast Missouri at arm’s length throughout. However, the Cyclones couldn’t dominate statistically the way you would expect. The Redhawks led the time-of-possession battle 36:52-23:08, although they turned the ball over three times. Iowa State generated just 303 total yards of offense and was forced to punt five times.
In their second game of the season, Iowa edged out Iowa State 16-13 in the rivalry matchup. Neither team managed over 284 total yards, and the Cyclones threw for just 117 yards through the air. This matchup was an old-school football battle in which neither side could display much effective offense, but Iowa State came out on the wrong side.
Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor has completed 18 of 35 passes this season for 301 total passing yards and three touchdowns, while adding 50 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Aiden Flora leads the rushing attack with 134 yards and a touchdown, while Cameron Pettaway also contributes. Omari Hayes leads the aerial attack with five receptions for 93 yards. Dominic Overby has added 85 yards on two receptions, while Vince Benetti is the only other player to record more than two catches this year.
Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Pick, Best Bet
There hasn’t been much to like about either team this early in the season. My lean is toward Bowling Green covering the 23.5-point spread in this matchup. Even with clear flaws in their overall roster and style, Iowa State hasn’t shown enough to make me confident they can beat any team by this kind of margin. Expect this game to stay a bit too close for comfort, and this spread to be too big.
However, I am backing the game total to stay under 43.5 as my best bet in this matchup. There are 138 total teams are competing in the FBS across college football. Iowa State currently ranks 130th in total offense, while Bowling Green ranks 132nd in this category.
Both will continue to see some growth as the season progresses, but neither offense is dangerous enough to put up a significant scoring total based on how they are playing. One of Bowling Green’s biggest bright spots has been Jay Kastantin’s efficiency as a passer, completing 73.9% of his pass attempts this season. But this is largely driven by short check-down and intermediate passes that do not cause much damage to the defense. They scored just 13 points against a Tarleton State team that allowed Prairie View 30 points the week prior.
Iowa State has shown little trust in unleashing Jaylen Raynor at quarterback, with just 35 total pass attempts across the first two games. The Cyclones will continue to lean on the run at a high rate, but they haven’t been particularly efficient either, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.
Don’t expect either offense to come out firing or for this to be a snooze-fest. The first team to reach the end zone twice will likely have a clear path to winning, and I expect the clock to move quickly as the running game and short passing game make it take plenty of attempts to move down the field. Count on the 43.5 scoring total to be too high based on these two teams, and expect the final score to fall under this line.
