We’re already into Week 3 of the college football season, which means we’re beginning to see the hierarchy of the sport settle. There’s a Texas-sized showdown set for 12 p.m. ET on Saturday when the North Texas Mean Green head to San Marcos to take on the Texas State Bobcats. The former just picked up their first win last week while the latter is still winless as their new Pac-12 schedule approaches in the not-so-distant future. How will this one shake out?
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for North Texas vs. Texas State in Week 3 of the 2026 college football season.
North Texas vs. Texas State prediction, preview
The 2025 campaign was a Cinderella-type season for North Texas – double-digit wins and an American Conference title game appearance were highlighted by one of the best offenses in the nation. After losing head coach Eric Morris and practically the entire roster to the transfer portal, there was worry that adjusting to a new era under Neal Brown may take some time. Two weeks in, those concerns have been lessened.
Competing against the reigning national champions, Indiana, on the road in Week 1 was never a real possibility. All things considered, a 52-16 loss in game one under a new head coach’s direction against a team that talented really wasn’t a half-bad outcome – the Mean Green actually outgained the Hoosiers 367-365 and got into the end zone, which was an accomplishment in itself. Last week’s performance against UNLV is much more indicative of what UNT can do against similar competition. North Texas’ home opener saw the Mean Green win 44-6 with 444 yards of offense, hitting at a clip of 6.6 yards per play and going 7-for-13 on third down. Transfer quarterback Tayven Jackson looked the part with 233 yards and two touchdowns while Jaheim White popped with 124 yards and a score in the backfield. Defensively, the unit allowed 301 total yards but was stout in terms of scoring allowed. As a bonus, they caused chaos with four sacks and four turnovers, too. There are certainly encouraging signs moving ahead.
As for Texas State, GJ Kinne’s program has been quite solid under his direction ever since the 2023 campaign. Three consecutive winning seasons with three bowl wins is hardly anything to scoff at these days, so there’s a chance for this to be one of the better teams in a rebuilt Pac-12. The Bobcats will need to keep a losing streak from building after starting the season 0-2, though.
Much like UNT, Texas State opened with a virtually impossible matchup. The team hit the road for a blistering-hot game against the Texas Longhorns that unsurprisingly ended in a 59-7 loss that wasn’t ever close after the first quarter. That was expected, though. In Week 2, they played at home against UTSA and did hold a 10-point lead at the half; they collapsed down the stretch while allowing 14 points in the fourth quarter to eventually lose 31-26. Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners are a likely contender in the American Conference this year, so it wasn’t a terrible showing by any means – Texas State racked up 481 yards on the day and dominated in the run game with 289 of those yards on the ground. Three turnovers – including two interceptions from Brad Jackson, who went 17-for-30 with 192 yards and one touchdown alongside the picks – ultimately were the difference in that one. Were there positives? Yes, but there were plenty of negatives, too.
North Texas vs. Texas State pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Texas State enters as a 2.5-point favorite with -142 odds on the Moneyline. North Texas holds +120 odds of an outright upset. The game total sits at 62.5 combined points between these teams.
This total is stupid high at 62.5, which makes me want to take the under. I mean, seriously. That’s way elevated. There’s an argument against the under since both teams have already showed they can move the ball nearly at will against competition from a similar level as their own, evidenced by last week, and there certainly are defensive concerns on both sides as well – though UNT has already shown more after shutting down scoring from UNLV last week.
If I had to pick a side to win this game outright, it would probably be the Mean Green. A two-game sample isn’t a huge one to go off of, but they’re an outright underdog on the Moneyline here at plus odds and obviously showed a ton of upside with that dominant Week 2 win. The late-game execution from Texas State was also a huge issue – there’s no guarantee of a repeat, but it’s something to keep in mind. The quarterback play also shows something of a discrepancy, too. Tayven Jackson has a 68.5% completion rate and has looked far better for the Mean Green than Brad Jackson, who has three interceptions already with just 342 yards in two games for the Bobcats.
If nothing else, this should be an excellent game with plenty of scoring, but I think I do favor North Texas outright given the plus-money value on this side and what both teams have shown so far.
Best Bet: North Texas ML (+120)
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