The NBA Finals get underway on Wednesday night in San Antonio, with a rematch from 1999. While the Spurs built a dynasty since then, the Knicks are returning to center stage in the NBA for the first time in 27 years. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on both Game 1 and the series as a whole.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs just beat the top-ranked power rated team in the NBA, and defending NBA Champs in the OKC Thunder. I have a ton of respect for the Spurs, who have built a tremendous core with good coaching. Of course, they also have a weapon that simply cannot be matched in Victor Wembanyama.
However, San Antonio does matchup better with the likes of the Thunder than it does the Knicks. We saw that play out over the course of a grueling seven-game series. While the Spurs are young enough to not be physically drained from the Western Conference Finals, particularly with the time off between games, the Game 7 win at OKC could prove a bit emotionally draining.
The Knicks will be facing an opponent coming off a Game 7 for the third straight series. I saw that as a huge advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs, and was both right and wrong about it. Game 1 was a historic game, but the Knicks didn’t exactly show up ready to play when they were trailing by 22 points in the fourth quarter. Obviously, we know what happened from there, when they flipped the switch and wound up winning with margin in overtime.
I think the Knicks can learn from that experience, and should show up ready to play, despite closing out the Cavs nine days ago. The Knicks also proved to be a more difficult matchup for the Spurs this season, going 2-1 against them. That included a win in the NBA Cup Final, with the Knicks small favorites on a neutral floor.
Despite the layoff, New York enters the Finals as hot as any playoff team in recent memory — winners of 11 straight, and with significant margin. I do expect the Spurs to provide much more resistance than the 76ers or Cavs did, and we have the expect the Knicks to cool off at some point. But I’m not expecting the Knicks to completely cool off, playing with extreme confidence on this postseason run.
I feel this series is much closer to a coin flip than the odds indicate, which means the value is on New York. I’ll back the Knicks to punch first against the younger team and grab the points with the road underdog for Game 1.
NBA Pick: Knicks +4.5 (-108)
I have a couple of player props I’m backing in Game 1 as well, and we’ll start with Mikal Bridges. He caught some heat early in the postseason for his poor play, but he went off in the closeout game in Atlanta and has not looked back. Bridges is averaging 18.7 points per game in the last nine playoff games, which dates back to Game 6 against the Hawks. He’s 8-1 to his points prop at 15+ during that span, which is where the number is set for Game 1 against the Spurs — with the lone under coming when he played just 28 minutes in a 30-point closeout win over Philly.
I expect Bridges to get some clean looks from downtown in this series, as he did the last time these two teams met on March 1. Bridges went off for 25 points on 5-of-9 shooting from deep. I’ll back Bridges to score 15+ in Game 1 of this series, which Matt Moore and I detailed further on Tuesday’s episode of DraftKings Network Daily Bets.
NBA Pick: Mikal Bridges 15+ Points (-125)
While I was initially considering looking at Josh Hart’s prop on 3-pointers because of how much I expect him to be left open, I’m pivoting to Jalen Brunson. The looks should be there for Hart with the defense backing off, but we need him to actually take and make them. I need to see what the Knicks’ game plan is with this before I’m confident enough to back it.
That leaves me with Brunson, who will not be afraid to unload from deep. Brunson should get plenty of looks from the top of the key on pick and rolls, which we saw play out in some previous matchups. The last two times these teams met, Brunson shot 4-of-7 from three in New York and 5-of-12 in San Antonio.
With all the talk about how hot the Knicks have been offensively, Brunson did not shoot well in the ECF. He was just 18% from downtown, and could be due to heat back up, especially in this matchup. Prior to the ECF, Brunson hit three or more triples in three of the four games against the 76ers and four of the six against the Hawks.
NBA Pick: Jalen Brunson 3+ Threes (+121)
I already broke down why I’m taking the points with the Knicks in Game 1, and as short underdogs, I think they have a strong chance to win this game outright. If that’s the case, we have an opportunity to get New York at a great price for the series by betting the Game 1/Series winner double result. If the Knicks steal Game 1, they’d almost certainly shift to the favorites in the series and we would have +375 in pocket. I think this one is worth a smaller play.
NBA Pick: Knicks Win Game 1/Series (+375)
Obviously, the picks read very pro-Knicks thus far. But I opened the article by saying how much I respect the Spurs, and I don’t see either side running away with this series. Outside of the run the Knicks are on, we’ve had a very competitive NBA playoffs. I think that continues in the Finals. Despite -170 juice, I’ll back the series to go at least to a Game 6 at Madison Square Garden.
NBA Pick: OVER 5.5 Games (-170)
