Relative to expectations, Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has arguably been the most disappointing individual player in baseball this season. The most disappointing team is less up for debate: the New York Mets have woefully underperformed, given their bulbous payroll and high expectations.
The teams will face off tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET in the final game of the day. Seattle beat New York last night in the first game of a three-game set.
For the middle game of the series, the Mets will use Huascar Brazobán as an opener ahead of Jonah Tong, and the Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
New York collapsed in epic fashion last summer to ultimately miss the postseason despite having one of baseball’s best records at this point last season. The Mets didn’t wait that long to have their collapse in 2026, losing 12 games in a row in mid-April to fall nine games below .500, a hole from which they have still not recovered. In particular, New York’s offense has been a disaster, as it ranks dead last in OPS despite Juan Soto’s leading the National League in that stat. Offseason acquisitions Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., and Marcus Semien have all been awful, and Robert is out for at least another few weeks. Meanwhile, although the Mets’ bullpen has been a top-five unit despite losing Edwin Díaz, their rotation has been poor, and rare bright spot Clay Holmes is out for at least two more months after fracturing his leg on a comebacker. New York could still climb closer towards the postseason if its offense ever breaks out, but that unit barely showed any signs of life until this past weekend.
Meanwhile, after a slow start to the season, Seattle has been the hottest team in baseball in the last week and a half, winning seven consecutive games despite Raleigh being on the IR for the last three weeks. That span has allowed it to climb over .500 and take the lead in the AL West. The Mariners have had nearly as solid an offense as last season despite Raleigh’s and Brendan Donovan’s absences and Eugenio Suárez’s departure, as Cole Young, Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodríguez have all been worth at least 1.5 WAR and Mitch Garver has filled in capably for Raleigh behind the dish. A league-average offense might be all they need, given that they rank sixth in rotation ERA and second in bullpen ERA. If anything, Seattle’s pitching might get even better, given that 2025 Cy Young Award vote-getter Bryan Woo and two-time All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz have both had some early-season struggles.
The Mets have a pretty solid pitching plan for tonight’s game. Brazobán has been tremendous this season, pitching to a 1.86 ERA across 29.0 innings of work, and he’s pitched a clean inning-plus in three of his prior four appearances an opener. In fact, New York won last Wednesday behind Brazobán and Tong, as Brazobán pitched a scoreless first inning and Tong added 3.2 more, allowing only an unearned run. The 22-year-old was poor last season in five starts, pitching to a 7.71 ERA, and he hasn’t been great for Triple-A Syracuse this season, but he’s still the Mets’ second-ranked prospect for a reason. Even last season, he was okay at limiting hard hits, which should be an asset against a Mariners lineup full of sluggers, and if his ability to generate whiffs and strikeouts in the minors translates up a level, he should exacerbate one of Seattle’s biggest weaknesses. He might have to deal with a lot of traffic on the basepaths, given his propensity to allow walks, but he’s generally been slightly better on the road and the Mariners play in the league’s most pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Meanwhile, Gilbert got trounced on May 16, giving up seven runs against the San Diego Padres, but since then, he’s delivered 11.2 scoreless innings, giving up seven hits and four walks while striking out 12. All in all, advanced numbers rate him pretty highly, as he ranks in the 67th percentile in pitching run value and the 50th percentile in expected ERA. He’s also been excellent at both generating whiffs and strikeouts and avoiding walks, which should make him a solid matchup against New York’s walk-averse lineup. The issue is that when Gilbert allows damage, it tends to come in bunches, as he ranks in the bottom quintile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, and that could actually be a problem against the Mets, who have laced the ball this season and gotten fairly unlucky. Evening coastal conditions in Seattle should help, as should the fact that New York has had the second-worst road offense in baseball this season.
New York Mets at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-118)
In theory, the Mets hit the ball hard enough to take advantage of Gilbert’s weaknesses, and they’re due for some luck at some point, but they’ve proven themselves difficult to trust all season. I actually trust New York’s bullpen enough to keep the Mariners’ lineup in check without Raleigh or Donovan.
Strong Lean: Logan Gilbert U6.5 Strikeouts (-127)
Gilbert has recorded six or fewer strikeouts in eight of his 12 starts this season, and the Mets have actually struck out at a below-average rate this season. Plus, while Seattle’s bullpen is somewhat taxed after last night’s extra-innings win, it can handle some extra burden tonight with the normally efficient George Kirby set to take the mound tomorrow and an off day on Thursday.
