I got off to a rough start to the NCAA Tournament with an 0-3 day on Thursday. Poor calls on Ohio State and Georgia, and just an all-time meltdown by North Carolina. Here’s what I like on Friday. Let’s look to bounce-back.
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara (12:15pm ET in Saint Louis, MO)
Interesting clash of styles here between the Wildcats and Broncos. You can read my full breakdown of the game on DraftKings Network here.
CBB Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (-118)
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State (4:10pm ET in San Diego, CA)
It’s no secret to college basketball bettors that the Mountain West has been a terrific fade in the NCAA Tournament. The trend goes back as far as you’d like to take it, but if we highlight the last five years, the conference is 10-21 ATS in NCAA Tournament play. Over its last five NCAA Tournament games, Utah State is 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by 9.5 points per game.
Kevin Willard has plenty of NCAA Tournament experience at Seton Hall and most recently Maryland, where he took the Terps to the Sweet Sixteen before falling to the eventual champions — the Florida Gators. Both teams are relatively evenly matched, as you’d expect given the seeding. The Aggies hold a slight offensive advantage, while the Wildcats hold a slight defensive advantage.
Utah State is more top-heavy with its scoring, and I think the collection of guards that Villanova will throw at the Aggies will cause some problems. Duke Brennan should also have an advantage in the paint. The Wildcats were crushed on the glass in a loss to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. They’ve has over a week to prepare to bounce-back, and I think they will.
CBB Pick: Villanova +2 (-110)
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF (7:25pm ET in Philadelphia, PA)
UCLA got dinged up in the Big Ten Tournament, but have had nearly a week off to rest up for NCAA Tournament play. I’m expecting the Bruins to be close to full strength in this one, and we know for sure that all the key contributors are suiting up to face UCF.
Yes, Mick Cronin and company have to travel out east to play, which I’m sure he will go on a rant about. UCLA’s struggles away from the west coast, and more specifically Pauley Pavilion, have been well documented. However, all of those games in the regular season were true road games. We just watched the Bruins in the Big Ten Tournament travel to Chicago and go 3-0 ATS. They lost as an underdog to the eventual conference champion in Purdue, but UCLA had to play without its two best players and impressively hung around.
UCF was not very impressive this season, with its stronger work coming early in the season. It did get a big road upset over a sliding BYU team recently, but the Knights enter NCAA Tournament play just 4-7 since the start of February — including four of their last five. UCF was a top-40 offense this season, per KenPom, but ranked just 114th in defensive efficiency. The defense was consistently poor all season, while the offense got worse — 62rd in offensive efficiency over the last six weeks. UCLA ranks 55th in defensive efficiency and a whopping sixth in offensive efficiency during that same six week span.
CBB Pick: UCLA -5.5 (-108)
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Missouri (10:10pm ET in Saint Louis, MO)
Semi-home game here for Missouri, but don’t expect that to throw Miami off its game. Read my full breakdown of the game on DraftKings Network here.
