No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara College Basketball prediction, preview (12:15pm ET on Friday in Saint Louis, MO)
Santa Clara is elite offensively, entering the NCAA Tournament with a top-25 offense on KenPom. The Broncos are a scrappy team that can force some turnovers and play with some tempo. However, Kentucky might prove to be a difficult matchup.
The Wildcats entered the season ranked in the AP Top-10, so they’ve obviously been a letdown. But the talent is there, and we’ve seen Kentucky pull off some impressive wins over the likes of Saint John’s, Tennessee and Arkansas. While there’s plenty to be frustrated about with Kentucky, it still managed to enter NCAA Tournament play as a pretty balanced team — 39th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. As you’d expect, Kentucky should hold an advantage on the glass in the game, ranking 75th in rebound rate. Santa Clara is just outside the top-100.
While I really respect Santa Clara and the offense, I can’t ignore the defensive side of the ball for the Broncos. Since February 1, Santa Clara ranks 170th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Kentucky has strangely had trouble around the rim all season, but the Broncos should provide close to no resistance in that regard. Given the size and athleticism of the Wildcats, I’m expecting some easy finishes around the rim.
The real question here will be if Kentucky can force turnovers and/or limit second chances and get out in transition. If it is able to do that, I expect points in transition to be a huge key in this game. I understand the love to Santa Clara as a popular underdog, but I think Kentucky is a very tough draw. The Broncos haven’t faced a roster like this one all season in terms of speed, skill and athleticism, and I expect it to show.
While I don’t think this is a major factor in the handicap, we also have to at least point out the tip-off time in the game. Set to get underway just after noon on the east coast, this will be by far Santa Clara’s earliest game of the season. The Broncos generally play late night, and have only had one game that began before 6pm ET once this season — the earliest being a 5pm ET tip on a neutral against Loyola Chicago in December. For what it’s worth, Santa Clara lost that game outright as a 15.5-point favorite.
