No. 7 Miami FL vs. No. 10 Missouri College Basketball prediction, preview (10:10pm ET on Friday in Saint Louis, MO)
This game is in Saint Louis, so it should be a pro-Missouri crowd, but that hasn’t impacted the Hurricanes this season. Miami is 8-2 straight up and against the spread in true road games this season, covering by over five points per game. That includes 3-1 ATS as a road favorite, and 4-0 straight up in those situations, with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points per game.
The Hurricanes are a well balanced team, entering the NCAA Tournament ranked 33rd in offensive efficiency and 38th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Compare that to Missouri, which ranks 50th offensively and 78th defensively by the same metrics. Miami should also own an advantage on the glass, even against a solid Missouri team that ranks 53rd in rebound rate, as Miami is 10th in the country by the same metric. Miami also ranks more than 50 spots ahead of Mizzou in offensive rebounds per game. The Tigers barely rank inside the top-200 in defensive rebound rate, and could struggle to keep the Canes from getting second chance opportunities.
Mark Mitchell is the go-to-guy for Mizzou, but I prefer Miami’s balance in the backcourt and interior to get it over the hump in this game. Missouri has struggled in these games priced around a coin flip, going 2-8 in games where the point spread is 2.5 or less in either direction. I’ll back the Hurricanes to advance in the first round.
