The 2026 Oscars are here, and one of the biggest prizes on the board is Best Adapted Screenplay. Any great movie needs a solid plot, and these five nominees certainly qualify. However, only one can take home the top prize. Which film will come out on top this Sunday?
Here is a full breakdown of the Best Adapted Screenplay category at the 2026 Oscars, including nominees, odds and a prediction for what will win.
Find our predictions for other major 2026 Oscars categories here!
- Best Picture
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Director
- Best Original Screenplay
2026 Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Train Dreams
Frankenstein
Bugonia
2026 Oscars Odds, Favorites
- One Battle After Another (-3500)
- Hamnet (+1000)
- Train Dreams (+1600)
- Frankenstein, Bugonia (+2800)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Who will win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars?
As far as the major categories go, this one has a heavy favorite. Still, let’s take a closer look at all five nominees to see if any have upset potential.
The clear undisputed favorite here is One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is in contention for several trophies, including Best Picture. However, nowhere does it enjoy better odds than in this category. In many ways, the screenplay checks all the boxes for what voters are looking for. It’s an adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, published back in 1990. Where the novel examines Reagan-era revolutionaries, OBAA successfully brings the story into our modern age. Best Picture isn’t a lock by any means, so voters will likely want to get PTA on stage at some point.
The likeliest challenger here is Hamnet, co-written by director ChloĂ© Zhao. A heartbreaking story of love and loss, this Shakespearean tale combines many elements that usually do well at the Oscars. It’s based off of a novel of the same name, written by Maggie O’Farrell; she co-wrote the screenplay, as well. Other than Best Actress, there may not be another chance to give Hamnet an Academy Award. That could lead to a major upset.
The chances of our final three picks winning can best be summed up as slim to none. Regardless, the odds tend to favor Train Dreams as the likeliest of the trio to earn a massive upset. Clint Bentley’s small-scale Netflix release, an adaptation of Denis Johnson’s 2011 novel, is represented in Best Picture and several other categories. However, this is probably the one major award it stands the best chance of winning. We’ve seen other period piece, character-driven stories take home an Adapted Screenplay trophy before. It wouldn’t be unheard of for history to repeat itself here.
Frankenstein is a take on Mary Shelley’s horror classic. Still, given the amount of previous adaptations on screen, it’s difficult to see this one gaining much traction. It’s a similar story for Bugonia, the only member of this list not adapted from literature. Instead, it’s a remake of the 2003 South Korean film Save the Green Planet! Yorgos Lanthimos’ newest hit is an entertaining watch, but it’s a bit too ‘out there’ to earn a win here.
I can’t in good conscience go with anything other than One Battle After Another here. Using the term ‘free money’ is bad karma, so I won’t go that far. However, any other film taking Best Adapted Screenplay would be nothing short of shocking. Not to mention, I think it’s the most deserving of the five nominees.
