Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers
The Commanders easily controlled the game in a Week 1 victory over the Giants, shredding them for 220 yards on the ground. However, it’s unlikely it’ll come that easy on a short week on Thursday Night Football in Green Bay. The Packers are off an impressive home win over the Lions, surrendering an NFL-best 46 rushing yards in the win.
Now in the road underdog role against what appears to be a strong rush defense, Washington will likely have to look to the air a bit more. Even with the focus on the ground game on Sunday, Jayden Daniels still targeted Deebo Samuel 10 times, which he was able to turn into seven receptions for 77 yards (he also took his lone rushing attempt for a 19-yard touchdown).
I expect Samuel to remain a key part of the offense in Week 2, and if the running game does struggle like Detroit’s did, some screen passes would also make sense as part of the game plan. Deebo’s reception prop is set at a modest 4.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and I’m firing on the over. I played this one on Tuesday, and discussed it on DKN Daily Bets with John Hyslop. The prop was priced at +105 when we started the podcast and was even money by the end — when I grabbed it and put it out in my NFL Week 2 Best Bets Cheat Sheet on DK Network.
The juice has since moved a bit more, but I’m fine playing this one with laying up to about -130. Between Deebo’s heavy involvement in a Week 1 blowout, and the matchup in Green Bay, I’m projecting Samuel to be heavily targeted once again. The short passing game will be a good way for Washington to try and work around the Packers’ run defense, which should favor Samuel’s skillset.
NFL Pick: Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 Receptions (+100) 1-unit
For my full NFL Week 1 card, check out my best bets article on DK Network.
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