NFL Week 1 finished with a strong record of 10-5, but for just +1.06 units. Probably left some meat on the bone, but we’ll look to capitalize more this week. Here’s everything I’ve bet in NFL Week 2, and I’ll continue to add throughout the week.
Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 Receptions (+100) 1-unit: John Hyslop and I gave this TNF play out on Tuesday’s DKN Daily Bets Podcast. Listen to the episode for analysis.
49ers -3 (-110) 1-unit: Nothing like Mac Jones versus Spencer Rattler in Week 2. I want in! Yes, the Niners got some bad injury luck again this season, and will be without Brock Purdy and George Kittle for multiple weeks. That said, I don’t think all of that is worth the four point drop off we’ve seen to the spread in this game, with San Francisco initially laying a touchdown here. The Saints kept it competitive against Arizona in Week 1, but didn’t look all that great. I trust the 49ers on defense here to keep the Saints in check, so they shouldn’t need a ton of offense to win this game. Jones has had plenty of struggles, but this is by far the best situation he’s been in in his career. I think he can step in here with pieces like Christian McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsal and win a road game against a bad team. Too much of a discount for me to pass up on.
Dolphins ML (-125) 1-unit: I understand how dreadful Miami looked in Week 1 against a Colts team that didn’t carry very high expectations. Whatever the Dolphins tried to do last week, it was broken. However, I’m trusting the bounce back spot at home against a Patriots team with plenty of its own flaws. If Miami’s passing game need a matchup to rebound against, this is it. The Pats gave up 362 passing yards at home in the rain to Geno Smith last week. The secondary was dreadful, and remains without its stud, Christian Gonzalez. Keon White will also be out this week, taking another key piece off the defense. While the Pats may hit some big plays down field against Miami’s secondary, the pass rush should find success, as New England will play three rookies on the offensive line. Having lost eight of their last nine trips to Miami, this is a spot the Patriots struggle historically.
Jets Team Total OVER 19.5 (-105) 1.5-units: I’m going to try and start giving one play out per week on X with all of my analysis there. You can find that play with all the analysis right here.
Keon Coleman OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1-unit: Coleman was held in check during the first half on Sunday night against the Ravens, with just one reception for 17 yards. He went off throughout Buffalo’s comeback, though. Sure, the game script of trailing late was ideal for Coleman’s final line, but he finished with 8-112-1 on 11 targets. This should be the WR1 for the Bills in Coleman’s second year in the league, and his teammates and coaches have been raving about him. While matchup and game script probably don’t unfold with the same convenience as last week, the Jets are coming off a poor defensive performance against the Steelers. Sauce Gardner has also been limited in practice late in the week, which could limit New York’s secondary depending on his final status. Pittsburgh had a pair of receivers go for 70-plus yards last week, including 83 from DK Metcalf. Even though this number is up eight yards from last week due to the big performance, I still think there’s value on Coleman here. I expect his props to continue to rise as the season goes on.
Ricky Pearsall OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 1-unit: Pearsall went for over 100 yards in Seattle in Week 1, and while there are a lot of moving pieces here, I trust him again this Sunday. Mac Jones replaces Brock Purdy under center, but that might not be the worst thing in the world for Pearsall’s bottom line. Jones was able to help Brian Thomas Jr. put up better numbers last season than he did with Trevor Lawrence. George Kittle is also out, which opens up some more targets. In a good matchup with the Saints, I like Pearsall to continue to see success as San Francisco’s WR1.
Tyler Warren OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5-units: Warren dazzled in his NFL debut, hauling in 7-of-9 targets for 76 yards against the Dolphins. No doubt, the Broncos will be a tougher matchup, but you could also argue more pressure on Daniel Jones means funneling more passes to Warren. The rookie looked like the center piece of Indy’s offense, and we might be getting an early season discount on him given the role we saw him play in Week 1.
Juwon Johnson OVER 3.5 Receptions (-150) 0.5-units: Johnson’s role was stunning in Week 1, running routes on almost all of Spencer Rattler’s drop backs. Johnson was heavily targeted too, securing 8-of-11 targets for 76 yards. Maybe the volume was a fluke, but with limited weapons in New Orleans, I’m willing to find out with a small Week 2 play on Johnson’s receptions. If his role is anything close to what it was last week, this receptions prop is a discount, regardless of matchup.
Javonte Williams OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 1.5-units: The Cowboys surprised me with how heavily they leaned on the run in the season opener in Philly, particularly early in the game. Williams didn’t wind up racking up the yardage given his volume, but the 15-54-2 line was pretty impressive against the defending champs. Week 2 presents a completely different situation, and a far more favorable one for Williams. Dallas is a home favorite against a Giants defense that gave up 220 rushing yards to Washington in Week 1. Just based on volume, if Williams sees anything close to 15 carries again, he’s in terrific position to crush his prop. Washington was able to get Jacory Croskey-Merritt 82 rushing yards on just 10 carries in this matchup last week.
James Conner OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.5-units: Hyslop and I discussed this one heavily on the DKN Daily Bets Podcast on Tuesday, and I’m ready to pounce on the opening line here on Wednesday. Conner only managed 39 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Saints in Week 1, getting about 60% of the carries over Trey Benson. Now Arizona returns home as nearly a touchdown favorite over a putrid Carolina run defense. The Panthers got shredded for 200 yards by the Jaguars in Week 1, led by 143 rushing yards on 16 carries from Travis Etienne. Getting gashed on the ground was no fluke by Carolina on defense — it ranked dead last against the run in 2024, giving up nearly 180 yards per game. The run defense by the Panthers got worse as the season went on, allowing over 211 yards over the final three games of the season. I trust Conner to make much more of his opportunity this week in a terrific spot. I expect this one to rise throughout the week. I would’ve bet this one if it opened up to 70 yards.
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