NFL Week 1 is finally here, and my best bets cheat sheet will have you covered with everything I’m betting for each week of the NFL season. Let’s dive into the Week 1 plays.
Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards (-108) 1.5-units: I backed Prescott to go over his season long passing prop in 2025, which you can read about on DK Network here. Dealing Micah Parsons should only help that outlook, and has moved the Cowboys out to even larger road underdogs in the season opener. Dallas gets its season underway on banner night on Thursday in Philadelphia, and the public has been mashing the defending champs. I’m staying away from a side in the game — openers for the champs can be dicy, as can Week 1 divisional underdogs. That said, as you go over game scripts for this one, the majority of them include high volume from Dak. As a massive road dog, if the projected game script holds, Dallas will need to sling the ball late. But if the Cowboys have any success, it should come through the air. While the Eagles had a strong pass defense last season, they still allowed quarterbacks to top this mark over the playoff run. Matthew Stafford topped 300 yards in Philly, and both Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes went for over 250, despite getting blown out. Prescott didn’t get a chance to face the Eagles last season, but has gone for 250-plus through the air in four straight meetings with Philly, averaging just under 322 passing yards in those games.
Omarion Hampton OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1-unit: Hampton has been announced the starter by the Chargers for Friday night’s game in Brazil against the Chiefs. Najee Harris will work into the backfield mix as well, but the extent of his role early in the season is still to be seen after suffering an eye injury in a July 4 fireworks incident. It’s been all rave reviews on the rookie out of UNC, who rushed for over 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns in each of his final two seasons in college. I’m anticipating we see a bulk of the work go to Hampton in his NFL debut, against a Chiefs defense that can be had on the ground. While Kansas City ranked 10th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed last season, it ended the year by giving up an average of 143.7 yards on the ground over the final three games. The Chargers were incredibly thin in the backfield last season, and have seemingly fixed that problem for a head coach that wants to put emphasis on running the ball. With Hampton still an unknown at the NFL level, I think this number is set too low and we’ll see it rise week by week early in the season. I’ll take advantage of a modest number here early on.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-123) 1-unit: The Steelers are a public road favorite in Week 1, which can be a little scary. Ultimately the news on Wednesday on Alijah Vera-Tucker pushed me onto Pittsburgh — the Jets’ captain offensive lineman was ruled out long-term. Aaron Glenn is a terrific defensive coach, and I’m not an Aaron Rodgers believer in this stage of his career. That said, I see too many other advantages for Pittsburgh in the game. The defense should cause a lot of issues for a lackluster Jets offense, particularly losing a key protector on the OL just before the first game. I think Pittsburgh will be able to find enough offense to scrape this one out.
Here are the plays I put out in my article last week. Prices have shifted a bit, but you can still find them at playable numbers.
Miami Dolphins +1.5 (+100) 1-unit: The market is down on the Dolphins this season, but now priced as an underdog to the Colts, I feel we’ve crossed a line. Yes, Miami has some issues in the secondary, but Indy’s offense is one of the least likely to exploit it. Meanwhile, we get a fresh and healthy Tua Tagovailoa, who generally has had much more success early in the season, before getting dinged up. I give the Dolphins advantages all over the field in this one, including head coach and quarterback. Playing indoors in Indy should also play into the favor of Tua and his explosive receivers. I’ll take points with Miami. Oh, and by the way — the Colts still haven’t won a game in Week 1 since 2013. Just a historic streak of coming out of the gates unprepared.
San Francisco 49ers ML (-135) 1-unit: I’m not a fan of road favorites in Week 1, nor do I like to go against the NFL Week 1 division underdog trend (38-16-1 ATS since 2014). Yet, I’m doing both and backing the Niners as a short road favorite in Seattle. The Seahawks lost a lot of veteran talent, including Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. This offense could be in trouble. Sam Darnold thrived under quarterback whisperer Kevin O’Connell, before crashing and burning down the stretch. I have no faith that his success will translate in Seattle. The Niners are off a dreadful season, but retooled and got healthy to return to form. The Seahawks beat a rundown 49ers team towards the end of the regular season, but otherwise San Francisco has dominated this matchup, winning the six prior games. I think we see the Niners round back into form in this one.
6PT Teaser – DEN -1.5/ATL +8.5 (-135) 1-unit: If you play survivor, these big Week 1 favorites have been scary lately. I don’t know about the Eagles or Commanders in division games, but I’m pretty confident in the Broncos. Denver has a strong defense, improving offense and great head coach, on top of one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. As much potential as Cam Ward may have, this is a very tough way to begin your NFL career, particularly when not surrounded by much talent. The Falcons do factor in as one of these Week 1 division underdogs, and happen to be at home. Tampa is dinged up to start the season, and coming off a season in which it likely overachieved. I expect the Falcons to make a jump in the division, and give the Bucs a game here. Teasing up to the key number of 8.5 means the Falcons just need to keep it within a possession on their home field. This team actually beat Tampa twice last season, even with Kirk Cousins under center.
6PT Teaser – DEN -1.5/CAR +9 (-135) 1-unit: I like Denver so much that I’ll back ’em twice here. Similar to Atlanta, we can take Carolina and get them up from a field goal to over a full possession at +9. We’ve heard good things about the improvement in Jacksonville this offseason, but this is a lot of points against a head coach in his debut. Carolina showed improvement of its own towards the end of last season, and made some moves to build around Bryce Young. If Young can pickup where he left off, the Panthers could even be live to win this game.
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