Two games remain in the inaugural 32-team FIFA Club World Cup. Chelsea, by virtue of beating Fluminense 2-0 in yesterday’s first semifinal, has already punched its ticket to Sunday’s final. This afternoon, the Blues will learn their opponent; regardless, it will be a European giant, either Real Madrid or Paris Saint-Germain.
PSG is looking to complete a quadruple after winning Ligue 1, the Coupe de France, and its first-ever Champions League, while Real Madrid is hoping to end its disappointing season — in which it only won the UEFA Super Cup — with a major trophy.
Les Parisiens are +130 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Los Blancos at +195 and a draw at +260. PSG is -140 to go through, while Madrid is +110.
Real Madrid vs. Paris Saint-Germain prediction, pick
Despite a 1-0 loss to Brazilian side Botafogo in the second group-stage game, it’s hard to argue that the European champions haven’t been the most impressive side in the competition. They’ve allowed just that one goal while scoring 11, have uncorked the sixth-most shots per 90 minutes and the third-most shots on target, and Gianluigi Donnarumma has the highest save percentage and the most clean sheets. They’ve also won the seventh-most tackles and the sixth-most interceptions, although part of that can be attributed to their deep run through the competition. It’s been a true team effort: Vitinha, João Neves, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Achraf Hakimi all have three goal contributions.
However, PSG lost two key players late in the quarterfinal win over Bayern Münich. First, Willian Pacho made a reckless challenge on Leon Goretzka in the 82nd minute and was sent off with a straight red card. Then, Lucas Hernández struck Raphaël Guerreiro with a flailing elbow and got himself a red card as well. Both players will be suspended for the remainder of the tournament, and while Hernández played just 97 total minutes in the tournament, Pacho had played every single minute of this tournament and all but 19 of Les Parisiens’ UCL triumph. He’s likely to be replaced by Lucas Beraldo, who made two or more tackles in 12 of his 27 starts but isn’t quite as efficient.
Real Madrid will be short-handed, too, as young defender Dean Huijsen, who had played every minute of the competition until his challenge, was dealt a straight red for denying Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy of a clear scoring opportunity. That shouldn’t impact Los Blancos too much, though; Raúl Asencio will likely start alongside Antonio Rüdiger. As a testament to how deep Madrid’s back line is, Dani Carvajal and Edér Militão have both logged zero minutes as they recover from ACL injuries suffered last fall, and while their fitness isn’t up to par yet, they might see a few minutes in a substitute role. The attack has also gotten better and better throughout the tournament, as Kylian Mbappé notched his first Club World Cup goal against Dortmund and 21-year-old Gonzalo García has recorded a goal contribution in every match.
In the end, I think PSG is too good. Madrid has been fine but not stellar throughout the tournament, scoring 11 goals (like its French counterpart) and conceding four. Los Blancos have taken the sixth-most shots and the fifth-most on target, with the third-most tackles and ninth-most interceptions, and Thibaut Courtois ranks second in save percentage, so it’s not like they don’t deserve to make it to this stage in the tournament. But Madrid is still getting used to Xabi Alonso’s system, while PSG has Luis Enrique’s down to a science. Les Parisiens have failed to win just five times with Kvaratskhelia on the pitch, and Los Blancos face a tough task to make it six.
