The defending champion New York Liberty are still figuring out life without center Jonquel Jones, some three weeks after losing the Bahamian to an ankle sprain. Since she went down on June 19, the Liberty are just 2-5 (0-5 against any team not from California).
The road doesn’t get too much easier for New York tonight, as reigning MVP A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces travel to Barclays Center for an 8 p.m. ET clash. Even in a down season for the Aces, who are just 9-9 after dealing Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks and acquiring Jewell Loyd prior to the start of the season, they’re never an easy opponent.
Regardless, the Liberty are five-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-218 Moneyline), with the total set at 166 points. Below, I’ll break down the exciting midweek clash.
Aces at Liberty prediction, pick
Las Vegas has started to turn it around, winning four of its past six games, and perhaps most worryingly for New York fans, Wilson is heating up. She’s scored 19 or more points in each of her past seven games, averaging 23.1 points, 8.3 boards, and 4.2 combined steals/blocks across that span, and the Aces have won her minutes by 36 points. In those games, opponents have shot just 59.8% within five feet of the basket with her on the floor, which would be the sixth-worst efficiency in the league overall.
It’s not really a question of whether Wilson will show up, though; Las Vegas’ chances depend on her getting enough help to lead her team to a win. With Wilson off the floor this season, the Aces have been a whopping 21.3 points per 100 possessions worse. Last Thursday, in a 81-54 loss to the Indiana Fever, Wilson scored 29 points on nine-for-18 shooting, while the rest of her teammates scored 25 points on seven-for-43 (16.3%) accuracy. It was a fairly anomalous performance, though; Loyd has made 40.4% of her triples this season, and it was also Jackie Young’s, Chelsea Gray’s, and Dana Evans’ worst outing of the season by game score.
I expect all of them to bounce back against the Liberty, who just haven’t been very good since Jones went down. New York had easily the best defense in the league when Jones got injured, but throughout her absence, it has conceded 107.0 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-worst mark in basketball. That’s not really a coincidence: Jones is a four-time All-Defensive honoree, a one-time block champ, and a three-time rebound champ. Without her patrolling the middle, opponents have hit 66.0% of their shots within five feet of the basket, the third-worst rate in the league, as well as the highest percentage from the midrange. Wilson is both prolific (14th-most shots in that range) and efficient (a league-high 74.0% among 20 players to attempt four or more such shots in that range) within five feet, as well as decent in the midrange.
I have faith in Breanna Stewart, who has been as elite inside as ever despite her jumper abandoning her. But even she has entered a shooting slump as of late, going just 18-for-53 (34.0%) from the field and one-for-11 (9.1%) from deep across her last three games. The Liberty escaped with a win against the Los Angeles Sparks last Thursday because Sabrina Ionescu broke out of a shooting slump of her own, but an excellent Ionescu game wasn’t enough to beat the stronger Seattle Storm on Sunday. New York won the turnover battle and shot exactly 17-for-19 from the free throw line in both of its wins without Jones; unfortunately for the Liberty, the Aces have been shrewd with the ball and foul at one of the league’s lowest rates.
