The Dallas Wings and Phoenix Mercury have been on opposite sides of the WNBA this season, but you wouldn’t know it watching their last game.
These two teams last squared off on July 3. Phoenix was 12-5 going into that one, and the Wings 5-13. One was proving to be a contender with the other heading towards the lottery, but it was Dallas who prevailed 98-89 in the first game of this home-and-home. Can they pull a second straight upset, or will the Mercury come out with the win and get back on track?
The Mercury are six-point favorites at home at -250 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 164 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Wings vs. Mercury Prediction
Injuries are already dominating this matchup. The Mercury will be without Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, and Lexi Held. That’s a major blow to their wing group against, well, the Wings. Dallas has their fair share of problems: DiJonai Carrington, Arike Ogunbowale, Tyasha Harris, and Maddy Siegrist are all banged up, leaving both teams with a hand tied behind their back.
I’m far more concerned about what this means for the Mercury than the Wings. Sabally and Copper are Phoenix’s second and third-best players, each extremely important to the offense. Held is also a key role piece. On the other side, Carrington and Siegrist are essential for the Wings and will be missed, but at this stage I view Ogunbowale as more of an anchor on this Dallas team than a propeller. There’s a reason why their offense went off last game without her.
Last game may not have been a fluke for this Wings offense. With Paige Bueckers alone at the helm, they had flow and balance to go with pace. It’s a great formula for them, even against this strong Phoenix defense. I expect a very close contest due to the names we won’t be seeing on the floor.
Wings vs. Mercury Pick
Dallas Wings +6 (-110)
I’m not fully confident that the Wings can win two in a row against Phoenix. Even with that critical trio sidelined for the Mercury, having Alyssa Thomas on your side always gives you more than a puncher’s chance.
This comes down to a star-off between Bueckers and Thomas as the two WNBA All-Stars attempt to make the best use of what’s left at their disposal. I do trust Thomas more due to her two-way impact and elite passing skills, but it’s a close enough call for me to believe the Wings can cover this +6 spread.
