It’s fair to say that the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun wish their seasons were going differently.
The Sun sit a full three games behind the pack in the WNBA. Owners of the worst offensive and defensive ratings in the league, nothing is going right. To add insult to injury, their first-round pick is not their own. Luckily for them, due to the WNBA’s two-year odds system, they won’t have anywhere near the best lottery pick despite having the worst record in the league. But that’s not much consolation.
The Aces are faring only a bit better relative to expectations. At 8-9, they’re sitting on the fringes of the playoff race. Being so far from contention is unusual for Las Vegas. Trading their 2027 first-round pick for NaLyssa Smith shows urgency, but I don’t think it will be the answer. Anything other than a massive turnaround will lead to some difficult questions being asked in the desert.
The Aces are 16.5-point favorites on the road and are -2100 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 156.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Aces vs. Sun Prediction
Despite Las Vegas’ struggles, they are massive favorites for a reason. The Sun are circling the drain, while the Aces still have A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray. That’s far too much for this Connecticut team to handle.
I don’t have much doubt about the outcome in this one. But the Aces have made a habit of playing down to the level of their competition this season. Will this be another case of the Aces letting an inferior team hang around? Or will they take care of business in convincing fashion?
Aces vs. Sun Pick
Las Vegas Aces -16.5 (-110)
I have concerns about the Aces’ ability to cover most spreads. But not against this Sun squad.
Vegas has the star power to completely overwhelm Connecticut. Even mediocre performances from their star trio could still spell a blowout. During their nine-game losing streak, the Sun are losing by an average of 20.2 points. That includes a 26-point loss to these same Aces. I have no reason to think anything has changed.
