This Club World Cup quarterfinal matchup seemed the least likely of the four, as Brazilian side Fluminense will take on Saudi giants Al Hilal, with the winner going on to face either Chelsea or Palmeiras in New Jersey next Wednesday for a spot in the final. How the two sides got here was impressive: Fluminense knocked out Champions League finalists, while Al Hilal edged out Manchester City in an extra-time thriller.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering single-use Profit Boost Tokens throughout the Club World Cup, eligible to use on 4+ leg SGP(x)s that are +300 or longer. Here’s my favorite for the first quarterfinal.
Fluminense vs. Al Hilal Same Game Parlay
- Al Hilal to Advance
- Under 2.5 Goals
- Rúben Neves to Score or Give Assist
- Fluminense Over 4.5 Corners
Though the Sky Blues scored three goals in the Round of 16, make no mistake about it: the best player in the game was Al Hilal goalkeeper Yassine Bounou. The 34-year-old Moroccan, who helped his country become the first-ever African team to make the semifinals at the World Cup, has recorded 27 saves this tournament, more than any shot-stopper except for Juventus’ Michele Di Gregorio, and his 84.0% save percentage ranks fourth. 10 of those stops came against City, including a few highlight-worthy ones. I couldn’t include his save props in a parlay, but Fluminense’s corner prop is about as close as it gets.
This parlay is such a long shot because individually, Neves is +400 to record a goal contribution. I’m not sure why; he’s tied with Marcos Leonardo for the team lead in goal contributions so far this tournament with three, he’s played every minute of the tournament, and each of his goal contributions have come in different matches. Across two seasons in the Saudi Pro League, he’s notched 0.42 goal contributions per 90 minutes, which isn’t quite as impressive as Leonardo but represents excellent value for the odds. An Al Hilal team that somewhat lacks depth will need to rely on its best players even more with captain and Saudi Pro League leading goal contributor Salem Al Dawsari out for the rest of the tournament with a hamstring injury.
Either way, it’ll be an interesting match between two elite defenses. Fluminense, like their Brazilian rivals Palmeiras, have allowed just two goals so far this competition, and they’ve also faced the fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes of any remaining team. They also rank fourth in interceptions and sixth in tackles won, while Al Hilal ranks fifth in the latter category. These teams use their defenses to initiate the counter-attack; both Fluminense and Al Hilal have only had majority possession once this tournament. Al Hilal has had the slightly more aggressive attack and has more top-level talent, so I think it’ll edge out a narrow affair, possibly on penalties.
