Eight teams remain in the FIFA Club World Cup. One side of the bracket — featuring Bayern Münich, Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, and Real Madrid — is a bloodbath of the traditional European giants. The other is one of dark horses, with Chelsea joined by Brazilian sides Palmeiras and Fluminense and Saudi giants Al Hilal.
That means that at least one non-European side is guaranteed to make the semifinals, and if Palmeiras upsets Chelsea tonight in Philadelphia at 9 p.m., a non-European finalist is guaranteed.
The Blues are +110 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Palmeiras at +275 and a draw at +225. Chelsea is -190 to advance, and Palmeiras is +150.
Palmeiras vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
Relative to expectations, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Verdão have been the most impressive side in this competition so far. Sure, they’ve arguably faced the easiest competition of any non-European team, topping a group featuring Inter Miami, Porto, and Al Ahly then facing another Série A side in Botafogo in the Round of 16, but that stifling defense is no joke. They’re one of just four teams left in the competition to have allowed two or fewer goals. They’ve also allowed the second-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and the lowest shot-on-target percentage while recording the most interceptions.
The Blues have enough attacking depth to penetrate Palmeiras’ line, as they’ve scored the second-most goals in the competition so far, and striker Nicolas Jackson — who assisted in the team’s opening match against Los Angeles FC — will return from a two-game suspension after getting a straight red card against Flamengo in the second match. The 24-year-old Senegalese forward has had 24 Premier League goals for Chelsea in the past two seasons, and though his finishing sometimes isn’t as clinical as it could be, his return gives the Blues a new attacking dynamic. It might allow them to score without their backs against the wall; in the match against Espérance de Tunis, all three goals came in stoppage time, and three of the four against Benfica came in the last 10 minutes of extra time.
Unfortunately for Chelsea, Moisés Caicedo — arguably its best player — will miss this match after picking up his second yellow of the tournament in the scrappy quarterfinal win over Benfica, which saw referee Slavko Vinčič issue 10 yellow cards. Caicedo has started all three matches in which he has appeared — he sat out the win over Tunis — assisting once and winning eight tackles. Thankfully, the Blues shouldn’t miss too much of a step with Christopher Nkunku, who scored the go-ahead goal against Benfica after coming on for Liam Delap as a substitute. Enzo Fernández, who has been consistently clutch in big moments for both Chelsea and the Argentine national team, will slide into the defensive midfield role, where he has played for most of the season.
All eyes will be on Estevão Willian, the 18-year-old Palmeiras wunderkind who is set to join Chelsea at the conclusion of the tournament. He’s been fairly quiet throughout the competition, recording no goal contributions, putting six of his eight shots off target, and picking up a yellow card, but his role in the attack is clear, and he ranks third on the team with 16 crosses and sixth with 292 total minutes so far. His dribbling prowess unlocks his teammates for runs, but his and the team’s finishing leaves room to be desired. Regardless of the victor — I narrowly back the Blues — defense will win out in this one.
