Playing a back-to-back is never easy in the WNBA. The Phoenix Mercury won an emotional game against the Connecticut Sun on Wednesday. Now they’ll have to turn around and go to New York to face the Liberty.
New York is not to be trifled with this season. The Liberty are up to 10-1 this season after beating the Atlanta Dream in their last game of the Commissioner’s Cup. Unfortunately for New York, the Fever prevailed on a tiebreaker to make the Cup Championship game. For the defending champions, any missed opportunity for a trophy gives them a chip on their shoulder. They’re taking that extra motivation into this game with Phoenix.
The Mercury have plenty of motivation as well. They fell one game short of challenging for the Western Conference spot in the Cup Championship. Injuries to stars Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper haven’t stopped them from piling up nine wins in 13 games. But all anyone can talk about in the West is the Minnesota Lynx. This game is an opportunity for Phoenix to say, “hey, it’s not a one-team conference”.
The Liberty are 11.5-point favorites on the road and are -1100 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 156.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction
Like anybody else, I have difficulty picking against the New York Liberty. The strength of their defense, the high-end offensive talent, and superb coaching is arduous for anyone to overcome. Few teams can give them a run for their money when they’re playing well. If New York is playing at its best, you don’t stand a chance.
The Mercury may be one of the teams that can give them trouble. This defense is menacing when they’re in a rhythm. It starts with Alyssa Thomas, one of the best defenders in the league. Satou Sabally is a great defender in her own right. Kathryn Westbeld, the third head of the hydra, gives them a ton of size and defensive skill. That defensive formula alone gives them a puncher’s chance against any team.
With the way AT organizes the offense and Satou scores at a high rate, they have a fun formula to challenge the Liberty defense. This team has become more dangerous now that Kahleah Copper is back in the fold. I ultimately expect the Liberty to win this one, but it’ll be closer than our oddsmakers anticipate.
Mercury vs. Liberty Pick
Phoenix Mercury +11.5 (-110)
I don’t believe this Phoenix team is capable of being blown out. Even against a team as good as New York, their formula of defense, star talent, and good role players will keep them in a lot of games. Perhaps even ones they shouldn’t be in.
New York has an absurd amount of star talent, for sure. But Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts has a lot of chess moves to make in this one. I expect Phoenix to do enough to bring this one down to the wire.
