Major League Baseball has another busy day of action on the diamonds this Saturday. After a few early games, eight contests are in the 4:00 p.m. ET window with four more under the lights. From those 24 starting pitcher options, let’s check out some starting pitcher prop bets that make sense based on the matchup, environment, and recent form. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a wide variety of markets for starting pitcher prop bets, and after looking at the options, my top plays of the night come from Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon and George Kirby
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Quintana under 16.5 outs recorded (-120)
The Cardinals are in Milwaukee to face the Brewers for an NL Central series this weekend, and in this Contreras brothers reunion, the Brew Crew has taken the first two games of the four-game set. They’ll send Quintana to the mound for the start on Saturday night, and whether things go well or not, I don’t think the veteran lefty will pitch deep into the game.
Quintana has been a solid addition for the Brewers, who signed him early in the season when their rotation was dealing with injuries. He is 4-1 in his eight starts with a 2.66 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP.
Despite his success, the Brewers don’t usually call on him to pitch lots of innings. He has 44 innings in his eight starts for an average of 5.5 innings per outing. It makes sense to set the over/under at 16.5 outs, but I like the under at these odds since Quintana has recorded 16 outs or fewer in each of his last five outings. That streak dates back to one in St. Louis against the Cardinals in the same matchup, when he went five innings in a victory at the end of April.
Quintana stretched out to over 100 pitches in his last outing but still only made it through five innings against the Padres. He could be more efficient and go deeper on Saturday, but I think it’s much more likely that he has another short outing whether he struggles or pitches well but leaves early.
Carlos Rodon over 7.5 strikeouts (+110)
Rodon faces the Red Sox on Saturday night after a disappointing outing last Sunday. The lefty has a robust 10.95 K/9 with a 31% K% this season. He had at least eight strikeouts in three straight starts before only totaling five K’s against the Sox last Sunday.
Rodon only went under six strikeouts in three starts this season, and he bounced back from each of them with at least eight punchouts in his next outing.
Rodon is in a favorable strikeout spot against the Red Sox, who have the second-highest K% in the majors over the last two weeks and the fourth-highest K% on the season.
It is a little concerning that he only had five strikeouts in this same matchup so recently, but that’s baked into the odds, which is why he’s available at plus money at this level on Saturday night at Fenway.
George Kirby to Record a Win (+185)
Kirby got a late start to the season after a shoulder issue that sidelined him out of spring training. He struggled badly in his first few starts, but looked back to his dominant self in his last start against the Angels.
I broke down all his recent numbers in my MLB DFS plays for today and explained why I’m back in on Kirby after he locked up the Angels in his last start. He has an extremely high ceiling, and he’ll be going against Tanner Bibee, who has been homer-prone on the road. I like Cal Raleigh to go yard off Bibee as I broke down in my home run props, and I think that even if he doesn’t, Kirby should get enough run support.
The Guardians’ offense has been scuffling a bit as well, so I think Kirby can claim the win in this start and love getting him at almost 2:1 in one of my starting pitcher prop bets for this Saturday. The “to record a win” prop bets are always tricky since so many things outside of the starting pitcher’s performance impact the outcome, but I like all the elements to come together for Kirby in this outing.
