Saturday is jam-packed with Major League Baseball action as all 30 teams are on the scoreboard, ready for action. Eight teams play under the lights, with 16 getting started in the late afternoon window around 4:00 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the full range of options and highlight some juicy home run props on the board. Considering the many factors that go into home runs, including matchups, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Saturday are Max Kepler, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Cal Raleigh.
Just a quick reminder as we jump in–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks–even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks go yard.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Max Kepler to record 1+ home runs (+425)
Kepler and the Phillies are at home in that late afternoon wave of games against Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays. Francis has allowed 2.83 HR/9, more than any other probable pitcher for the entire day. Kyle Schwarber (+270) is a strong play at shorter odds, but Kepler has good value at +425.
Kepler has a home run and two doubles in his three starts in this homestand. He has a barrel in each of those games and a 70% hard-hit rate over his last four contests. Kepler has two homers in his last 17 games and seven on the season. He has six of those seven homers against righties and five of those seven at home.
He’ll be on the strong side of both those splits this afternoon against Francis. Francis is 2-8 in his 13 starts with a 6.12 ERA, 6.90 FIP and 50.8% hard-hit rate against. He has allowed 23 barrels and 19 home runs in his 60 1/3 innings. Of those 19 home runs, 15 have been hit by left-handed hitters like Schwarber and Kepler. Schwarber has shorter odds and is a little more likely to hit, but Kepler could bring much better returns if he catches a barrel and goes yard on Saturday.
Fernando Tatis Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+425)
Tatis has 13 homers on the year with a 52.2% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate. While most of his homers have come at home, he’s in a solid spot on the road on Saturday night at homer-friendly Chase Field.
Tatis hasn’t homered in 14 games but still has a 43.9% hard-hit rate over that span with three barrels. He had three hard-hit batted balls on Friday with an average exit velocity of 101.9 miles per hour. Over his last three games, he has an 85.7% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 99.8 miles per hour.
He’s been smashing the ball coming into what should be a good matchup for him against Zac Gallen and the D-backs, which I highlighted in my top MLB DFS plays of the day. Gallen has a 6.38 home ERA and 4.82 home FIP in his 42 1/3 innings at Chase Field this season. Seven of the 14 homers against him were hit at home and nine were hit by right-handed hitters.
Tatis has had success against Gallen in the past with a pair of home runs as part of his 5-for-17 performance in their past meetings. It’s been a while since Tatis went yard, but that drought has a good shot at coming to an end this Saturday night.
Cal Raleigh to record 1+ home runs (+300)
Another pitcher who has been homer-prone and is a good spot to attack for home run props tonight is Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. In his 13 starts, Bibee has given up 14 homers with a 39.7% hard-hit rate against him. Eight of those 14 homers have been hit by left-handed hitters, and 11 have come in his 39 2/3 road innings. Bibee hasn’t been awful overall, but he has struggled with giving up home runs, especially when pitching on the road.
Raleigh will be on the strong side of those splits as the switch-hitter moves to the left side of the plate. He has hit 18 of his 26 homers this season as a lefty, along with a .415 wOBA and 177 wRC+ on that side of the split.
In his last 20 games, Raleigh has 11 homers with a .380 batting average and a .478 wOBA. During that stretch, he has a 53.7% hard-hit rate and 20.4% barrel rate, both of which are improvements on his already-impressive contact metrics for the season.
