After a full afternoon of action, Major League Baseball closes out Saturday with a nice four-game slate that includes some of the top rivalries in the sport. The Red Sox and Yankees meet at Fenway in one of the two early games and the Dodgers host the Giants in one of the two late games.
Let’s break down the top options in my MLB DFS picks.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $75K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (Night)
PITCHER
Stud
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians, $8,800: Kirby is still a little high-risk, but some of that is also baked into his salary, which is amazingly affordable given his ceiling. For GPPs, he makes a ton of sense since he brings such a high ceiling.
The season didn’t start well for Seattle’s ace, though. After a shoulder injury delayed his season debut, he went 0-3 in his first three starts, allowing 13 runs on 21 hits in 13 2/3 innings with only 11 strikeouts. He seemed to find his groove in his most recent outing, earning 42.6 fantasy points in seven innings against the Angels with a career-high 14 strikeouts.
That performance was in stark contrast to his first three outings in which he earned a total of just 10.7 fantasy points. Was it an outlier or is he really back? We’ll find out this Saturday night. He has a pretty good matchup against the Guardians, who have scored the fifth-fewest runs and the eighth-highest K% in the MLB over the last 30 days.
It may be too early to call it a comeback, but I’m ready to play Kirby at this salary on Saturday.
Value
Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, $7,700: Roupp is high-risk as well since he’s taking on the Dodgers, who have one of the most well-stocked lineups in the majors. Roupp has been very good lately, though, and he has been able to rise to the occasion against other tough opponents.
On the season, Roupp has averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game, but over his last five starts, he has put up over 16 fantasy points four times. He improved to 4-4 with a win in his last start and has a 3.29 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and a 1.36 WHIP. He has allowed only a 31.1% hard-hit rate and has an 8.3 K/9.
The Dodgers were held in check on Friday by Logan Webb as the Giants took the first game of the series, and Roupp will look to continue that trend Saturday. The Dodgers have only scored 24 runs over their last six games with five homers and a .303 team wOBA. They are obviously still a tough matchup, but not necessarily one you have to avoid at all costs on such a small slate this Saturday.
INFIELD
Stud
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres, ($5,600): I hyped Marte in my cash games picks for Friday, and he continues to be a strong play on Saturday as the D-Backs host the Padres. Over his last 16 games, the switch-hitting second baseman is hitting .345 (20-for-58) with four homers, a stolen base, two doubles, and a .462 wOBA. He has a 41.7% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over that stretch.
He and the Snakes take on unproven righty Ryan Bergert ($6,000) on Saturday night. Bergert has had two strong starts since moving to the rotation but has a 5.55 xFIP and 5.47 SIERA that indicate his 1.26 ERA is unsustainable based on the amount of hard contact against him.
Stud
Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,200: Flores and the Giants take on familiar foe Clayton Kershaw ($6,700) on Saturday. Flores has an extensive history against the lefty, going 10-for-43 (.233) with two doubles, a home run and five RBI.
Flores is hitting .370 (10-for-27) over his last seven games with two doubles and a home run. He has four multi-hit games in that seven-game span with six runs scored and four RBI. He doesn’t have an extremely high power ceiling, but he consistently hits for average and can be a solid mid-range option at either corner infield spot.
Value
Casey Schmitt, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, $2,700: Schmitt has been playing at 3B while Flores serves as the designated hitter. He’s an even cheaper option at either corner spot as you assemble your squad for Saturday. Schmitt is a 26-year-old utility player who has shown a little pop in his parts of three seasons with the Giants. Last year, he had six homers in 40 games and a .306 wOBA.
This year, he’s hitting just .231 with a pair of homers and a .318 wOBA, but he has caught fire over the last few games, giving him a high ceiling at a bargain salary. He homered on Friday in the series opener against the Dodgers to extend his hitting streak to four straight games. In that short span, he is 6-for-15 (.400) with three walks, two homers, and a 70% hard-hit rate. It’s a small sample size, obviously, but it’s enough to make him a flier worth checking out.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, $6,600: Judge is on a whole different level right now and is crushing just about everything he sees. He’ll have a good matchup against Hunter Dobbins ($6,400), the Red Sox rookie who he took deep last Sunday after he made disparaging comments about the Yankees. While Dobbins and the Red Sox got the win that night, Judge smashed a home run off the rookie righty.
Judge has been outstanding all season with a .390 batting average, 26 homers, a .520 wOBA and a .390 ISO. He leads the majors in barrels per plate appearance and has the second-highest average exit velocity at 95.5 miles per hour. He has 10 of his 26 homers in his last 19 games with a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate during that span. If you can afford to pay up, he’s the premier bat on just about every slate and usually delivers big numbers.
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,900: Tatis and the Padres are in a good spot against Zac Gallen ($7,900) in Arizona. Gallen has a 6.38 home ERA and 4.82 fhome FIP in his 42 1/3 innings at Chase Field this season. He has served up seven of his 14 homers against at home and nine of those have been hit by right-handed hitters. Tatis has gone 5-for-17 (.294) in his career against Gallen with a double, two homers and four walks.
While he hasn’t gone yard in a while, Tatis has still been productive and hitting the ball well. He has at least 12 fantasy points in five of his last nine games and is hitting .258 (8-for-41) over that stretch with two doubles, eight walks, four stolen bases and a 44.0% hard-hit rate.
Value
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, $3,500: Rafaela is a solid bargain play in the outfield and has been coming around at the plate over the last few weeks. He’s hitting .254 on the season but .350 over his last 15 games. During that span, he is 21-for-60 with three doubles, four home runs and three stolen bases.
He has produced 10.0 fantasy points per game over that 15-game span and is one of only a few right-handed bats in the Red Sox’ regular lineup against lefty Carlos Rodon ($10,600). The Sox have been content to enjoy his defense and wait for his offense to come around, and it looks like it may finally be starting to do just that.
