After getting a win on Thursday afternoon to avoid a sweep at home, the Rockies roll into Atlanta to take on Bryce Elder and the Braves. Both teams have been disappointing relative to expectations as they meet for the second time this season. The Braves are 29-38 and 15 games behind the Phillies in the NL East, but the Rockies are even worse at 13-55, already a massive 27.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
Since the Rockies have been so bad, the home-team Braves are the heavy favorites at -337 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Rockies vs. Braves on Friday night in the first game of their weekend series.
Braves vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Elder is coming off his best start of the season. Last Saturday, he went eight innings and allowed just three hits and one run while posting a season-high 12 strikeouts. On the year, he still has a 4.08 ERA, 4.30 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. He has given up a 46.1% hard-hit rate and 9.0% barrel rate, resulting in nine homers and an average of 2.6 runs allowed per start.
The Rockies will hope to bring Elder back to earth after that strong start in San Francisco. While Elder does have strikeout upside, the Rockies’ lineup has been hitting a little better lately, and isn’t the pushover it was earlier in the season. Thairo Estrada has joined the top of the order and brought some stability, and he is one of my top MLB DFS Bargains for the day. I also bought into Hunter Goodman’s recent power surge enough to back him in my top home run props of the night.
The Rockies did just play at home and got the Coors Field boost, but they have the fourth-highest wOBA over the last week, while they also reduced their strikeout rate from 26.1% on the season to 20.7% over the last week. They still may not be a great offense, but they aren’t nearly as abysmal as they were a month ago.
The Braves’ offense is in a very favorable matchup against German Marquez. Marquez is only 2-8 with a 7.00 ERA, 4.46 FIP and a 1.68 WHIP. He has given up a 47.2% hard-hit rate and a 7.9% barrel rate. He has served up seven homers in his 13 starts, and he has been especially hittable on the road, where he has an 8.82 ERA and 4.95 xFIP. Even though his home games are at Coors Field, he gives up more runs when he’s on the road like he will be in this start.
The Braves scored 23 runs over their last six games while hitting .230 as a team with a .299 wOBA. They have been more productive at home but still land about league average in wOBA, average and runs scored.
Braves vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Since both pitchers have given up such good contact, my favorite pick for the night is the total total bases over 27.5. In their last 10 games, the Braves have averaged 12.4 total bases per game while the Rockies have averaged 15.9 total bases. Marquez has given up 98 total bases in his 63 innings for an average of 1.6 total bases per inning, and Elder has surrendered 92 total bases in 57 1/3 innings for an average of 1.6 total bases per inning as well.
Taking the over in this game would be pretty much the same thing, but this doesn’t count on either team’s questionable clutch hitting to deliver runs. Since both pitchers have given up such hard contact and both offense are trending upward, I think they’ll get over 28 total bases between the two teams.
Best Bet: Total Total Bases Over 27.5 (-108)
Elder and Marquez are both very hittable and giving up enough hard contact that I like both teams to get hard contact and plenty of extra-base hits at Truist Park, even if the wind isn’t helping the ball carry.
Strong Lean: Rockies Extra Base Hits over 2.5 (+125)
The Rockies have at least three extra-base hits in seven straight games and have 73 extra-base hits in their last 25 games for an average of 2.9 extra-base hits per game. Elder has given up 23 extra-base hits in his 10 starts, for an average of 2.3 extra-base hits per outing.
