It’s a great Friday of Major League Baseball with all 30 teams in action, going into another full weekend. Only one game is on the scoreboard for the afternoon, with the other 28 teams in action Friday night under the lights. If you’re looking to start your week with a bang, there are some juicy home run props on the board. Considering the many factors that go into home runs, including matchups, environment and players’ current form, my top three home run props on the board for Friday night are Hunter Goodman, Willson Contreras and Cal Raleigh–we’re rolling with catchers (or former catchers) who rake this Friday!
Just a quick reminder as we jump in–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks–even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is coming. If you’re looking for the shortest odds to go deep, my colleague Garion Thorne highlighted those this morning.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks go yard.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Hunter Goodman to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Goodman and the Rockies are in Atlanta to take on Bryce Elder and the Braves on Friday night. There is some potential rain that could push the start time back, but if it goes as planned, Goodman is in a good spot to start our home run props with a smash at good value odds.
Goodman didn’t start on Thursday before entering as a pinch-hitter, but he was crushing the ball in his previous starts. He went 15-for-35 (.429) with four home runs, five doubles, two triples and a 63.0% hard-hit rate in his previous eight games. His home run on Wednesday gave him 11 blasts on the season.
Even though that homer was at Coors Field, most of his long balls have come on the road. He has hit eight of his 11 home runs on the road and also has eight of his 11 home runs against right-handed pitchers. His road wOBA of .401 is better than his mark at Coors, and he has a 129 wRC+ in the split against righties.
While Elder was excellent in his most recent start, he is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA, 4.30 FIP and a 46.1% hard-hit rate against. Opponents have nine home runs against Elder in his 57 1/3 innings, and right-handed hitters have six of those with a .332 wOBA.
Goodman comes in as a sneaky value at +500, so don’t overlook him just because he’s a Rockie away from Coors.
Willson Contreras to record 1+ home runs (+500)
In another value option, Contreras is at +500 as the Cardinals take on Freddy Perlata and the Brewers at American Family Field. The two Contreras brothers have the shortest odds in this contest, but I’m backing older-brother Willson in my home run props Friday.
Willson Contreras has turned things around after a slow start to this season. He has eight homers on the season, two of which have come in his last seven games. Over his last nine games, Contreras has a 61.5% hard-hit rate and a 23.1% barrel rate with an average exit velocity of 95 miles per hour. In those nine games, he is 12-for-33 (.364) with a .475 wOBA.
In his career, Contreras has gone 7-for-24 (.292) against Peralta with a double and a pair of home runs. Peralta has been good this season with a 2.69 ERA and 3.89 FIP, but he has allowed nine homers in his 14 starts. Right-handed hitters have hit six of those nine home runs, even though they have only 45% of the plate appearances against Peralta this season.
The fact that Peralta has been doing so well overall keeps Contreras’s odds from being shorter. At this number, Contreras has been hitting the ball well enough to like him in this matchup Friday.
Cal Raleigh to record 1+ home runs (+340)
To wrap up my home run props for the night, Raleigh makes a good play with his odds a little longer than they have been lately. He leads the majors with 26 dingers on the year, and is back home against a righty in Gavin Williams.
The switch-hitting Raleigh will bat left-handed against Williams, and 18 of his 26 homers have come from that side of the plate. Williams has held lefties to a .162 batting average on the year, but has served up five of his nine homers allowed to lefties as well. The power potential should still be ther for Raleigh, since Williams has given up eight homers in 10 starts over 52 1/3 innings.
Raleigh didn’t homer in the Mariners’ three-game series in Arizona, but he has 11 homers in his last 19 games with a 56.9% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 94.1 miles per hour. Fewer than 10 players have a higher average exit velocity than that this season, and Raleigh’s is up to 92.2 miles per hour on the year. Even though he only had two singles against the Snakes, he did have four hard-hit balls, so he doesn’t look to be slumping.
You could even argue that Raleigh is “due” to go deep, especially since he’ll be back at T-Mobile Park, where he has a .414 wOBA.
