On Friday, Major League Baseball has all 30 teams in action at some point during the day. After the Cubs and Pirates in a Wrigley Field matinee and two other early starts, the main MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET and includes the 12 games under the lights. Some great series are set up for a fun weekend, including four divisional games that include two of the fiercest MLB rivalries, starting with Red Sox-Yankees in Boston and finishing with Giants-Dodgers in San Francisco. Whether you avoid those games or stack them, you may have to shop for some bargain plays to round out your roster. In this post, I’ll highlight my top three bargain plays for Friday’s 12-game slate of MLB DFS action.
As always, be sure to double-check weather conditions and lineups before the first pitch. The main trouble spots for weather are Atlanta and Baltimore, with the late games’ forecasts looking relatively dry. When value shopping, it’s especially important to check starting lineups to ensure your bargain plays are starting and batting in spots that give them good upside.
As you make out your lineup card for this Tueday night, be sure to check out the full range of MLB coverage from the team at DKNetwork, since these bargain values are just one piece of the MLB DFS picture to consider.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
SP Adrian Houser, Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, $7,300
I’ve been skeptical of Houser’s emergence as a fantasy option over the last few weeks, but he continues to turn in excellent results and is in a great spot on Friday night against the Rangers, who signed Houser this offseason but released him in May. While the revenge-game narrative makes this play extra spicy this Friday, the main reason I like Houser in this spot is a combination of his recent form and the Rangers’ recent struggles at home.
In his four starts since joining the White Sox, the 32-year-old righty has gone 2-1 with a sparkling 1.48 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. Each of those numbers is a big improvement on his career averages. He has gone at least six innings in each of his four starts, allowing zero or one run in all but one game. He has at least 18 fantasy points in three of those four starts and has racked up exactly six strikeouts in each of his last three starts, turning in strong outings against the Mets, Orioles and Royals. His most recent start against the Royals was his best fantasy outing of the year, resulting in 23.3 fantasy points.
The Rangers have struggled on offense most of the season and have the third-fewest runs in the MLB at home, where they have hit just .225 as a team with a 78 wRC+, meaning they are 22% below league average as a team at run production when playing at Globe Life Field. Houser will hope to continue his success and their home struggles. The Rangers’ offense looked great in their stop in Minnesota, but Houser is a strong bargain play against them as they start their six-game homestand this Friday.
2B Thairo Estrada, Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, $2,800
Estrada is a great value play with a high ceiling and a high floor now that he has established himself as the second hitter in the Rockies’ batting order. The veteran fractured his wrist late in spring training, but he has been productive since making his season debut at the end of May.
In his 11 games, Estrada has gone 12-for-46 (.261) with five doubles, four runs scored, seven RBI and a 30.0% hard-hit rate. He may not bring the raw power or home run potential of other values like Nick Kurtz ($2,900) or Royce Lewis ($2,800), but he has regularly been getting on base and been involved in the Rockies’ run production, which has helped him produce at least five fantasy points in five of his last seven games, including 19 fantasy points on Thursday in the Rockies’ win over the Giants.
He should be a solid bargain MLB DFS option at second base if he bats second in the order against Bryce Elder ($7,800) in Atlanta. When you check to be sure he’s in that spot in the order, also double-check to be sure the rain isn’t an issue in Atlanta.
OF Alek Thomas, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres, $2,800
The Diamondbacks are at home this weekend for an NL West series against the Padres. Thomas has been excellent over the last week, hitting safely in six of seven games and going 10-for-26 (.385) with a double, two homers, a stolen base, and an average of 10.4 fantasy points per game. He has a 52.2% hard-hit rate in those seven games with three barrels. On Tuesday, Thomas had 33 fantasy points while going 3-for-3 with four runs scored and his third homer of the season.
Thomas is hitting .284 with a .329 wOBA this season against right-handed pitchers and is hitting .301 with a .345 wOBA at home. He’ll be on the strong side of both of those splits against Stephen Kolek ($8,200). Kolek has been solid overall since joining the Friars’ rotation, but left-handed hitters have a .268 average and a .355 wOBA against him. Thomas brings both power and speed potential at a very affordable price, and his ceiling as an outfielder under $3,000 makes him a great bargain option for MLB DFS this Friday night.
