The Las Vegas Aces and Los Angeles Sparks are searching for answers. Wednesday’s game will go a long way toward answering questions for one of these teams.
After being the preeminent power in the WNBA for the last three years, the Aces are coming up bust. Their previous outing, a blowout road loss to the expansion Valkyries, made the questions louder than ever. Despite A’ja Wilson continuing to play at an MVP level, they’re struggling on both ends. Newest Ace Jewell Loyd is off to a rough start, their depth almost completely eroded in the offseason, and they’re struggling to re-establish their identity.
The Sparks are trying to improve on an 8-32 record last year. Acquiring former Aces legend Kelsey Plum was a significant step back toward relevance, but they have a long way to go. Los Angeles is also coming off a tough loss to the Valkyries. At 3-7, the Sparks face an uphill battle just to sneak into the playoffs this season. Getting Cameron Brink back and healthy would go a long way, but it seems this remains a multi-year rebuilding project.
The Aces are 11.5-point favorites at home and are -700 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 166.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Sparks vs. Aces
This game shouldn’t be challenging to call, but it is. The Aces aren’t scoring and defending at the level we’re used to. In years past, they killed you with top-end talent supplemented by lots of two-way depth. Now that top-end talent has slowed a step, and the depth is gone. This double-digit spread feels like a legacy mark for Las Vegas.
Los Angeles may not have much going defensively, but its offense is picking up. Plum does the heavy lifting while Azura Stevens and Dearica Hamby support her well. Odyssey Sims has been resurgent this season and is a quality starter. They need to score a lot to keep pace with a Brink-less defense, but they’ve been capable of it so far. I see two top-heavy teams with a lot of flaws, and while I think the Aces pull this one out, I don’t see the gap being all that large at the moment.
Pick for Sparks vs. Aces
Los Angeles Sparks +11.5 (-110)
The Sparks have a lot of offense for this Aces team to contend with. I’m not confident that Las Vegas will be able to shut them down. Frankly, I’m not optimistic that this Aces team will be able to do anything significant until I see otherwise. They haven’t finished lower than sixth in offensive or defensive rating since 2018; they’re ninth in both categories this season.
The burden of deep playoff runs after deep playoff runs may be stacking up. The squad is more top-heavy than ever, and cracks are showing. Against a Los Angeles team that can create a lot of pressure offensively, I’m dubious about Las Vegas as double-digit favorites.
