The Indiana Fever have mostly survived without Caitlin Clark. Since Indiana’s star guard suffered a quadriceps strain, the Fever have gone 2-2, including a blowout win over the Chicago Sky. Across that span, they’ve had the league’s third-best net rating and, most critically, the fourth-best offense. Clark has since returned to practice, but she’s not healthy enough yet to make her return to action tonight against the Atlanta Dream.
Sydney Colson has stepped into Indiana’s starting lineup in Clark’s absence, and while she hasn’t played much of a factor, Lexie Hull has stepped up, averaging 11.0 points per game and making 63.6% of her three-point attempts with Clark sidelined. She’ll hope to keep the good times rolling against an Atlanta team that has posted a 5-3 record this season.
The Dream are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-218 Moneyline), with the total set at 161 points. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Fever at Dream prediction, pick
I wasn’t concerned about the Fever’s defense lasting with Clark on the shelf, given that they had been 15.8 points better per 100 possessions on that end of the floor with her on the bench over the first four games of the season, but the fact that they have maintained their offensive rating is a positive surprise. Hull’s shooting is probably unsustainable, although she has improved dramatically in every season of her WNBA career, but Kelsey Mitchell’s is bound to bounce back. Aliyah Boston’s playmaking chops are legitimate as well, given that she had two eight-assist games last season even with Clark on the roster, and if Indiana could find some way to use the jumbo playmaker look even after Clark’s return, it could offer a new dynamic to the offense.
The defensive metrics have been impressive, even though the raw defensive rating has been roughly equivalent before and after Clark’s injury. The Fever’s opponents have shot just 57.4% from the restricted area over the last four games, the second-lowest rate in the league across that span, although they were undoubtedly aided somewhat by playing the Chicago Sky, by far the worst-finishing team in the WNBA. That rim protection will be a critical factor again tonight, with Atlanta posting the league’s third-worst mark from the restricted area. Worryingly enough, the Dream have also tended to play teams with poor rim protection, as they’ve yet to play the league-leading Liberty, third-place Sky, or fourth-place Minnesota Lynx.
Seven of Atlanta’s eight games this season have been decided by single-digit points, so while the Dream’s record is impressive enough, they have struggled to put mediocre teams away, beating the Los Angeles Sparks by just six points and the Dallas Wings by just eight. Those two teams combined for a 17-63 record last season and are just 4-16 so far this season. Plus, Atlanta also lost to the Connecticut Sun, one of just two wins that team has posted this season. It did beat the Seattle Storm behind a 33-point performance from Rhyne Howard and 28 more from Allisha Gray, but otherwise, there’s cause for concern. Though the Dream allow the fewest points off turnovers, they also score the fewest, and they allow the most points in the paint while the Fever score the most. They also take the second-most threes per game, and Indiana allows the third-lowest percentage.
The teams have played twice this season and split the season series, with the Fever falling short in the first game despite Clark’s masterpiece and prevailing in the second despite her playing poorly. Overall, it’s fair to call these teams evenly matched, especially since Indiana hasn’t missed many beats without Clark. Even with two-time All-Defensive guard Jordin Canada back in action for Atlanta, I like the Fever’s value on the spread.
