The 2023 Las Vegas Aces set the record for the best winning percentage in a 40-game WNBA season, finishing 34-6, and in 1998, the Houston Comets went 27-3. That’s the kind of company the defending champion New York Liberty, who are off to an 8-0 start, are chasing, although it’s worth noting that the Minnesota Lynx are 9-0 already.
By net rating, no team is even in the same legion as New York. The Liberty are blitzing opponents by 23.3 points per 100 possessions, nearly 10 points better than the Lynx, 0.8 points better than that Comets squad, and 8.2 points better than the 2023 Aces. The Liberty will hope to keep the good times rolling tonight against the Chicago Sky, who have just a 2-5 record and the league’s second-worst net rating (negative-16.2). The game will tip off from Barclays Center at 8 p.m. ET.
New York is a 16.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-1650 Moneyline), with the total set at 164.5 points. I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Liberty vs. Sky prediction, pick
For context, the Liberty have only won three times by single digits this season and just once by a single possession. New York has played just 11 clutch-time minutes this season, where the score has been within five points with five or fewer minutes to play, because it has been so utterly dominant. Natasha Cloud is a player who’s received MVP votes in the past and was just named to the All-Defense Second Team, and she’s the Liberty’s fourth-best player.
There’s simply no stopping New York, which frankly still has room to improve. Sabrina Ionescu is shooting worse than 40% from the field and just 33.3% from beyond the arc. Breanna Stewart is posting career-low rebounding numbers, although part of that can be attributed to the fact that she’s made an unsustainable 90.0% of her shots inside the restricted area. Jonquel Jones is finishing at a career-low rate and is questionable for tonight’s game with an ankle injury.
The rim protection has been absurd: the Liberty’s opponents are shooting just 53.9% from the restricted area and 28.2% from floater range, both of which are by far the best marks in the league. In fact, the only other place on the floor where opponents are making more than a third of their shots against New York is the left corner, where they’re shooting 36.4%. The Liberty do allow the most offensive rebounds, but that’s because opponents miss so much. Other than that, New York is a team without a weakness.
Chicago simply stands no chance tonight, especially as its star, Angel Reese, suffers through a miserable sophomore season. Reese is averaging just 9.1 points per game and is somehow hitting restricted-area shots at just a 32.0% clip, easily the worst mark of any player attempting three or more shots at the rim per game (excepting Jordin Canada, who’s played just one game). Plus, star guard Courtney Vandersloot, a former Liberty player, tore her ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Hailey Van Lith looked okay in relief of Vandersloot, and Kamilla Cardoso has shown some flashes in her second season, but the Sky are overmatched, whether or not Jones plays.
Chicago might be okay when it channels its offense through Ariel Atkins, who takes mostly jumpers, but among the starters, Reese and Cardoso rank first and second on the team in usage rate. Given New York’s rim protection, that’ll be a problem. The last time these teams met, the Liberty won by 25, with Reese shooting zero-for-eight, Cardoso three-for-eight, and Atkins two-for-eight. The Sky shot just eight-for-28 (28.6%) in the restricted area that day.
