Saturday sets up to be another busy late afternoon and evening of baseball with seven games starting around 4:00 p.m. ET and five more starting after 7:00 p.m. ET. Several of those contests are rivalry matchups with divisional foes and regional rivals going toe-to-toe in some of the best series of the weekend. Let’s dive into the Saturday afternoon and night games and hunt down some fun starting pitcher props to attack. After looking at the wide variety of starting pitcher markets on DraftKings Sportsbook, my top plays of the night come from Ryan Weathers, Jack Kochanowicz and Luis Severino .
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ryan Weathers over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Weathers and the Marlins are in Tampa to take on the Rays, and the young lefty will continue to ramp up after missing the first few months of the season with a forearm injury. He stretched out to 99 pitches in his last outing and picked up seven strikeouts against the Giants.
Weathers has gone over this strikeout line in each of his last two starts against the Padres and Giants after coming in under the line in his first two starts. However, those were still while he was building up his pitch count and also came in a tough matchup against the Cubs.
The Rays are a much more strikeout-friendly matchup since they rank in the top 10 in K% on the season. Over the last week, they have the second-highest K% in the majors, averaging 10.5 strikeouts per game in their last six contests.
Weathers averaged 8.3 K/9 in his breakout season last year, and he has been even better with a 9.1 K/9 this year. As his innings increase, it may dip a bit, but since he’s fully stretched out, I love getting him at plus-money to get to six strikeouts to get my starting pitcher prop bets off to a strong start this Saturday.
Starting Pitcher Race to 3 Strikeouts (Both Pitchers Must Start): Jack Kochanowicz over Luis Castillo (+135)
Another young arm is the second pick in my starting pitcher prop bets as we move under the lights for the Angels hosting the Mariners on the West Coast. While I don’t trust Kochanowicz in fantasy and actually target against him in one of my home run props for Saturday, he does have good strikeout potential and could sneak a win in this quick-hitting race to three strikeouts against Luis Castillo and the Mariners.
Kochanowicz is only 3-7 with a 5.34 ERA on the year, but he does have 44 strikeouts in 64 innings and has a 20% K% over his last five starts. On the other side, Castillo has been more effective with a 4-3 record and 3.03 ERA, but he only has a 19.1% K% on the year and a 18.5% K% in his last six outings.
The matchups for both pitchers are fairly even as well, with the Angels posting a 24.7% K% in the last two weeks while the Mariners are right behind them with a 24.4% K%. Both teams rank in the top 10 in K% in overall numbers for the season and vs. right-handed pitchers.
Since the two matchups are similar and K% are almost even, the big decider here in my mind is that Kochanowicz has the huge advantage of pitching each inning first since he’s the home team pitcher. Getting him at these odds is a great value option since he should have a good chance of going right at the Mariners and getting out to an early lead. Even if he gives up runs and doesn’t last as long in the game as Castillo, I like him to beat the veteran in this sprint to three strikeouts.
Luis Severino under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110)
The Orioles are one of my top MLB stacks so this isn’t a full endorsement of Severino, who has struggled at home. However, one thing Severino has been good at this season is avoiding giving out free passes. The veteran righty has only a 6.9% BB% and has a total of 23 walks in 13 starts (1.7 per outing).
He has walked zero or one batter to come under this prop line in three of his last four starts. In his last outing, he gave up nine hits and eight runs to the Twins in 5 2/3 innings, but he only issued one walk. In his 46 1/3 innings at home, he has only handed out 15 walks.
Severino throws plenty of strikes, but the other reason this is one of my top starting pitcher props for the day is that the Orioles haven’t been very patient lately. On the season, they have the sixth-lowest walk rate in the majors. They typically are aggressive early in counts. Whether they get to Severino and pile up plenty of runs or if he’s able to limit damage, I think he has a good shot to come in under this walk line in either scenario. I’m surprised the odds are so favorable, and it should be a good prop to attack in the final game of the night.
