Major League Baseball has another busy Saturday lined up with seven games in the late afternoon and five under the lights. Some great environments for home runs are on the board with homer-happy parks like Coors Field, Yankee Stadium and Sutter Health Park all in use under the lights. Let’s take a look at the 12 games in the late afternoon and evening. Considering the many factors involved, including matchups, environment and current form, my top three home run props on the board for Saturday are Agustin Ramirez, Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso.
Just a quick reminder as we get started–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks even if every single factor is in their favor. The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and get hyped when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Agustin Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+425)
In the afternoon, one of the best home run parks in play is George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay. It’s not supposed to be rainy, but at 90 degrees with the wind blowing out, it should be a great spot for long balls. The Marlins and Rays met Friday afternoon with a pair of homers as the Rays won their fourth straight.
On Saturday, lefty Ryan Weathers faces Taj Bradley in a battle of young hurlers with lots of upside. Bradley has an elite ceiling but has also struggled with allowing home runs. In 12 games, he has allowed nine homers, including five in his last six starts since May 1. Five of those have come at home and five have come to right-handed batters.
On the right-handed side of the split, Ramirez makes lots of sense as a target for home run props. He hit his eighth homer of the season on Friday, giving him four homers in his last 19 games. He has a 46.4% hard-hit rate since being called up 38 games ago and continues to slug in the heart of the Marlins’ batting order.
He had three hits on Friday in the Marlins’ loss, and he has actually had much more success on the road than at LoanDepot Park in Miami. He has hit six of his eight homers on the road, with a .272 ISO and .350 road wOBA.
Ramirez brings plenty of power potential against Bradley if he catches a barrel and the environment makes him one of the top options in my home run props.
Cal Raleigh to record 1+ home runs (+190)
Raleigh leads the majors with 24 homers on the season, and he has seven of those homers in his last 10 games. During that stretch, he’s hitting .342 with a .546 wOBA and 65.4% hard-hit rate. He also has a 26.9% barrel rate to raise his barrel rate on the season to 23.2%.
The switch-hitting Raleigh has hit 16 of his 24 homers when batting left-handed against a right-handed pitcher, and 11 of his 24 home runs on the road. He’ll be on the road against righty Jack Kochanowicz and the Angels on Saturday.
Kochanowicz has a 6.19 ERA in his 12 starts and has allowed 10 home runs. Nine of those home runs have been hit by lefties, who have a .313 batting average and .393 wOBA against him. Since Raleigh will be hitting lefty against Kochanowicz, he will be on the strong side of the splits, and he has gone 2-for-3 in his career against the Angels’ starter, with one of those hits being a home run.
Raleigh’s a good play as one of the top home run props of the night, even though his odds are a little shorter than the ones I typically target.
Pete Alonso to record 1+ home runs (+220)
The Mets are in Denver to face the Rockies at Coors Field, and they’ll take on lefty Carson Palmquist. Palmquist has served up four homers in his last three starts, including two to the Mets in his last start and one by Alonso. Overall, the soft-tossing lefty has an 8.50 ERA, 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in his four MLB starts.
Alonso has six home runs in his last 13 games, while going 17-for-50 (.340) with four doubles, six homers and a .501 wOBA. He had a 45.0% hard-hit rate with an impressive 25% barrel rate, and if he crushes another one, it’ll travel at Coors Field. Nine of his 15 homers have come on the road, and he has a .437 road wOBA.
I mentioned Alonso as one of my top DFS plays of the day, and he’s also one of my top home run props on the board since so many elements are in his favor.
