Things have certainly been brighter in Washington and Connecticut before. The Mystics and the Sun have a combined 5-12 record going into Sunday’s contest.
Washington has a solid enough squad, but has suffered from a brutal schedule in the early going. Its 3-6 record is punctuated by losses to the Aces, Mercury, and the 8-0 Liberty twice. Its rookies are off to a strong start with Kiki Iriafen putting herself in the conversation for Rookie of the Year. However, this Mystics team is struggling to form an identity. It feels like their wins have come off the strength of their top-end talent, not a cohesive effort as a team.
The Sun are in more dire straits this season. Their net rating is the worst in the league going into Saturday’s games, and the offense is struggling to get anything going. That is, unless Marina Mabrey goes wild. She did just that against the Atlanta Dream in their last contest to get the second win of the season for Connecticut.
Connecticut’s rebuilding will take time, but there will be bright spots. Regardless of the result, it’ll hope more players can flash potential on Sunday.
The Mystics are six-point favorites at home and are -258 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 159.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Sun vs. Mystics
Washington as six-point home favorites feels fair. It’s lost some games it should have won, and played bad teams close. Opening night saw Washington beat this same Connecticut squad 90-85, but I think things have changed since then.
Washington has found some sort of cohesion. Brittney Sykes may be coming back to earth, but the rookie pairing of Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen has been consistently excellent. Shakira Austin is working her way back into the rotation and playing well. Jade Melbourne is knocking down her shots and keeping the ball moving. It’s not the prettiest formula, but it’s enough to take care of the lost teams.
Connecticut still feels like a lost team. If the only answer for victory is “Marina Mabrey, please save us,” that will not go well throughout the season. Saniya Rivers is showing some fun all-around skills, but she’s more of a force multiplier than a driver of success. The same can be said for Olivia Nelson-Ododa. Some interesting pieces are here, but the lack of top-end talent leaves them adrift in the wind. I’m picking the team with a clearer vision.
Pick for Sun vs. Mystics
Washington Mystics -6 (-110) and Over 159.5 (-110)
Connecticut has no answer for the Sykes-Iriafen-Citron trio. That’s two strong guard defenders to contain Marina Mabrey and a big body to bang down low with Tina Charles. It’s an excellent matchup for Washington in addition to the talent advantage.
Neither of these squads has defended at a high level this season. With athletes on both sides, the pace should pick up in this one. I’m expecting this low total to get crossed as well.
