The Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries are playing scrappy basketball, for two different reasons.
The Aces are in year four under Becky Hammon. The first two resulted in championships, and the third saw them lose to the eventual champion New York Liberty in the semifinals. Now they’re looking to climb back to the mountaintop after Kelsey Plum’s departure.
Golden State is hoping to establish an identity in its debut season. Despite the 2-5 record, its looked quite good for an expansion team. The vets are meshing well, and the young players, especially Janelle Salaün, have looked promising. Its innovative defensive style, combined with athleticism, has made teams uncomfortable, and some games have been more competitive than expected.
The Aces are 11.5-point favorites on the road and are -600 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 160 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Valkyries vs. Aces
The talent gap in this game is vast. The Aces boast the world’s best player in A’ja Wilson, playing her usual brand of basketball. All-Stars Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd would be the best players on Golden State by far. It’s an absurd amount of talent for any team to deal with, let alone an expansion team. I’d expect the Aces to pull this one out, but the question is by how much?
Pick for Valkyries vs. Aces
Las Vegas Aces -11.5 (-110)
The Aces aren’t smashing teams at their usual rate to begin the season. Adjusting to Jewell Loyd instead of Kelsey Plum hasn’t gone smoothly; the former scoring champ is shooting just 15% on two-pointers. Still, they’re formidable with their star and plenty of depth.
This Aces squad can seriously defend when they put their minds to it. This Valkyries squad cannot score at a high level, even when trying their hardest. Golden State has the 12th-ranked offense in the league. The zone-heavy defensive scheme employed by Valks’ head coach Natalie Nakase has sometimes thrown teams off, but it’s not enough to contend with the M’VP and friends. I think Vegas will cover handily in this Commissioner’s Cup showdown.
