It was a tough contest when these two squads faced off a week ago. The Washington Mystics pulled off an 83-77 victory at home over the Indiana Fever. Now, the Fever look to even things up at home on Tuesday as the two kick off their Commissioner’s Cup schedule.
It’s tough sledding for Indiana without Caitlin Clark. That loss to the Mystics was the Fever’s first game without their MVP candidate since she exited the lineup with a quad injury. The second game without Clark was a loss to Connecticut and the first win of the season for the Sun. While that one ended up close, the Fever trailed for most of the game. For a team that plays with this much pace, losing the offensive structure that comes with Clark is devastating.
Meanwhile, the Mystics’ season is going more or less as planned. They’re beating the teams they should and playing competitive games against genuine contenders. Washington should be firmly in the playoff race on the strength of Brittney Sykes’ breakout and the rookie tandem of Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron. A postseason chance for this young core would be a great way to test their mettle ahead of schedule.
The Fever are 4.5-point favorites at home and are -192 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 162 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Mystics vs. Fever prediction
In the last matchup, Indiana was a -2.5 road favorite. I didn’t understand that one. Washington does lack depth and top-end talent, but they’re competitive and have a strong trio in Sykes/Iriafen/Citron. Indiana without Clark is a considerably worse team in my eyes.
That’s not necessarily their fault. Caitlin is expected to play 35-ish minutes during which she controls the offense’s tempo. Figuring out how to replace that on the fly is nearly impossible. The “Kelsey Mitchell, please save us” plan hasn’t quite worked, as she’s 8-for-31 from the field over the last two. She’s just not the consistent pressure point that can make everyone else fall into place.
They do have talent that can step up offensively. Aliyah Boston grows more confident with each game, Lexie Hull is shooting the lights out, and the veteran duo of Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner know how to push and pull. Still, nobody is stirring the drink without Clark, leaving Kelsey Mitchell to be hounded by Sykes and Citron. That’s not a winning formula, so this one should go to the Mystics yet again.
Mystics vs. Fever pick
Washington Mystics Moneyline (+160)
I took Washington +120 for the last contest, and I don’t see much of a reason to change my tune now.
Despite the venue shift to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Washington is the better team with Clark sidelined. On top of that, the matchup favors Washington. They have the defenders to contain Mitchell and force Boston and the veterans to beat them offensively. That’s going to be a tough equation to overcome for Indiana.
This Fever team is a sneaky contender with Caitlin Clark healthy, but a lottery squad without her. The entire team is built for her presence, so I’ll fade them every time they are favored without her in the lineup.
