You’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup in the early going. The Minnesota Lynx are 7-0 and hurdling forward on their quest to win the Western Conference for a second straight year. And the Phoenix Mercury, armed with a new roster, are looking to challenge the West crown.
The Mercury have been reaping the benefits of their new star duo this season. Satou Sabally (from Dallas) and Alyssa Thomas (from Connecticut) have been the most exciting two-way duo of the young season. Sabally, the 2023 MIP, has taken another step on both ends of the floor. Thomas, a perennial MVP candidate, has adjusted well to Phoenix after 11 years in Connecticut. Unfortunately, her calf injury casts a shadow over this contest, one where Phoenix would already be missing All-Star Kahleah Copper.
This 7-0 record hasn’t come without some stress for Minnesota. Kayla McBride missed the first four games, and MVP favorite Napheesa Collier also missed a game. Four of their wins have come by six points or less. While they are a dominant team full of top-end talent, they’ve had to work hard to overcome the hardships of the early season and eke out some wins.
The Lynx are 12-point favorites at home and are -800 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 157 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Lynx vs. Mercury
It’s a shame that injuries have negated what could have been an incredible contest. If you combine last year’s stats for Kah and this year’s from AT, Phoenix will be missing 36.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. That’s a whole lot of production sitting in street clothes. Against a Lynx team this dangerous, that is almost certainly a fatal blow.
There’s a chance Satou Sabally goes wild enough to keep the offense afloat. And the defense, even without AT and Kah, is quite good. But it’s a lot to ask Satou and role players to keep up with Collier and Co. for a second straight matchup.
Pick for Lynx vs. Mercury
Under 157 (-115)
I considered Minnesota’s line at -12, but it’s a good approximation of the gap between the two squads. With Minnesota’s tendency to end up in close games, I think it could be closer than this. But I’m not willing to bet on a team missing two of its three best players.
This is a defensive contest at its core. Their last game felt like a first-to-70 kind of game, and needed this game winner to be decided:
I think Phoenix’s offense will continue to struggle, but its defense will do just enough to hold Minnesota down. This all adds up to a low-scoring contest in my book.
