Things have not gone to plan for the Dallas Wings and Seattle Storm to start this season. Tuesday’s contest gives both squads a chance to get things right.
For Seattle, a lot of this is due to their demanding schedule. Their 3-4 record includes two games against the Aces, two against the Mercury, and one apiece against the Lynx and the Dream. Only one of their games has come against a team under .500, a 79-71 road win over these Wings. The early results don’t bode well for Seattle’s contention hopes, but they won’t have it this hard all season.
Dallas’ beginning to the season depends on your perspective. To begin with, they weren’t expected to be in serious playoff contention. Their 1-6 record includes some competitive losses to a 7-0 Minnesota squad, plus the Storm and the Dream. The offense has been promising in the early going as Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale learn to coexist.
The glass-half-full perspective has merits as well. Bueckers isn’t scoring enough to be a 1A option, the defense doesn’t have many avenues for success, and their depth hasn’t looked great. Looking at their last three games, they played what was at the time a winless Connecticut squad (a 109-87 victory) and a Chicago squad (back-to-back losses). Going 0-4 against four playoff squads with just one double-digit loss is one thing. A 1-2 stretch against the dregs of the league paints a less compelling picture.
The Storm are 9.5-point favorites at home and are -470 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 164.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Wings vs. Storm
This Seattle squad has too much talent to be held down for long. Nneka Ogwumike is playing like her excellent two-way self. Skylar Diggins-Smith still runs the point with panache. Gabby Williams has taken a step forward offensively while bringing her usual stellar defense. Ezi Magbegor has been off to a slow start, but the perennial DPOY candidate will pick things up sooner rather than later. They might be a sleeping giant in the Western Conference.
The Wings might just be sleeping. Bueckers has all the offensive talent in the world, but the adjustment to the league is tough. Arike Ogunbowale’s scoring papers over a lot of holes in her game. They’re getting crushed in the DiJonai Carrington minutes, as the reigning MIP has had a tough time adjusting to Dallas. Maddy Siegrist has improved but not enough to live up to the No. 3 pick billing. Myisha Hines-Allen is great in her role but can’t save this defense. Having Paige in the door goes a long way towards changing things, but it could be a long road.
Pick for Wings vs. Storm
Seattle Storm -9.5 (-112)
This is a fair line for the talent margin Seattle has over Dallas. It’s the matchup that puts this over the top for me.
The equation for Dallas winning is scoring so much that it overwhelms the other team. That’s a tough ask against a Seattle team that should finish as one of the top defenses in the league. They have the personnel to contain Dallas’ talented backcourt while Ezi can lock down the paint.
Furthermore, Seattle’s offense should get going against a Dallas team struggling to stop anybody. Few can handle Nneka, they don’t have the defenders to contain Skylar, and the role players will have plenty of open looks. This could get ugly in Seattle’s favor. Wings don’t do well in a Storm.
