Major League Baseball has all 30 teams in action this Friday with a couple of afternoon games and then a full night of matchups under the lights. There are some big weekend series getting started, including the Phillies hosting the Brewers, the Red Sox visiting the Braves, and a rematch of last year’s World Series as the Yankees roll into Dodger Stadium. With so many intriguing options on the board, there are plenty of starting pitcher props to consider as you fill out your betting card. In this post, I’ll give you my top plays, including picks for Kyle Harrison, Matthew Liberatore and Zebby Matthews.
On Monday, I nailed all three of my starting pitcher prop bets and went three-for-three again on Wednesday. My picks have been running red-hot over the last few weeks, and I’ll do all I can to keep this heater going. All the recent hits could mean regression is coming, but hopefully, these three starting pitcher prop bets keep the green rolling on Friday.
Every day of the season, DraftKings Sportsbook offers multiple ways to get in on the action with player props, moneylines and picks against the spread from each MLB contest. You can also pick series winners, award winners and team futures, so be sure to check out all the options available on the MLB page of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Harrison under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
I actually like Harrison as a prospect and think he could be an important part of the Giants rotation later this season. That being said, this is a great place to take the under on his strikeout total as he makes a second straight spot start for the Giants.
He is filling in the rotation spot of Justin Verlander, who is expected to be ready to return before very long, so the team may not worry too much about pushing his pitch count. In his start last week against Washington, he threw 57 pitches against the Nationals and had four strikeouts in four innings. In his 9 1/3 innings this year in the majors, he has 11 strikeouts after logging 38 strikeouts in 26 innings at Triple-A.
The Marlins aren’t typically viewed as a tough matchup, but they have been much improved this season after struggling on offense last year. They rank slightly below the league average in K% for the season, but they have been especially good at strikeout suppression over the last two weeks. In their 12 games over the last 14 days, they have a 16.8% K%, which is the lowest of any team in MLB.
Since Harrison might not be around for a long time and the Marlins have done a good job at keeping their strikeouts low, I think he’ll end up under this strikeout line on Friday night in Miami.
Matthew Liberatore to record a win (+170)
Liberatore has longer odds to get the win than I normally target in my starting pitcher prop bets, but that does show how much I like him in this matchup. It should be a good value spot for him on the road against the Rangers.
Texas has scored the fewest runs in MLB over the last two weeks, producing just 30 runs in 12 games while hitting an MLB-low .178 as a team. It also holds a .240 team wOBA and a team wRC+ of just 51, which means it is 49% below league average in run production over those 12 games.
While the Rangers have been scuffling, Liberatore has been off to a strong start to the season. The 25-year-old lefty has only three wins in 10 starts but has turned in quality outings in several no-decisions lately. Liberatore has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight outings, and only twice left in under six innings. His run prop and outs prop are solid options if you want a Liberatore play with shorter odds, but I’m gearing up to swing for the fences with his win prop.
On the other side of the matchup, the Rangers will give the ball to Jack Leiter, who has been struggling with control issues since coming off the IL in early May. In his last five starts, he has a 3.86 ERA, 4.83 FIP and has been saved by a .185 BABIP against. With some regression in that category, the Cardinals should be able to get enough runs to set Liberatore up for a win. The Cardinals rank in the top 10 in runs scored and the top five in BABIP over the last two weeks.
Race to Three Strikeouts: Zebby Matthews over Bryan Woo (-105)
In one of the two late games, the Twins visit the Mariners as Matthews and Woo go head-to-head in the series opener. While Woo has been much more effective overall this season and is a better play in most formats, Matthews has good value in this race to three strikeouts. Even though he’s the road pitcher and has to overcome Woo’s advantage of pitching first each inning, Matthews gets my pick in the last of my starting pitcher prop bets for Friday night.
I highlighted Matthews as a good DFS value based primarily on his strikeout upside. Even though he has been hit hard at the MLB level in each of the last two years, he has posted great strikeout rates. In 37 2/3 innings in the majors last year, he had a 24.3% strikeout rate, and this year, he has a 40% strikeout rate in his first two starts. He also had a solid 21.5% strikeout rate at Triple-A before his promotion.
He takes on Woo in this prop, who has been very effective this year, but only has a 24.1% K% on the season and has been under that mark in three of his last four starts while totaling 22 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings. Woo is a great fantasy baseball option against the Twins, but his strikeout rate isn’t as high as Matthews’ has been.
The matchup is also slightly more favorable for Matthews, since the Mariners rank seventh in MLB in K% on the season and sixth over the last two weeks. The Twins offense has been underwhelming for much of the season but ranks 15th in MLB in K% on the season and 13th over the last two weeks.
Since this is just a race to three strikeouts, I love getting Matthews at just about even money. I think he’ll be able to overcome Woo’s head start and secure the win in this prop even if Woo and the Mariners ultimately are the better play for the overall game.
