Tuesday’s game between the Golden State Valkyries and the New York Liberty was entertaining for two quarters. The Valks kept things in striking distance during the middle quarters, winning 41-40. Unfortunately, they could not recover from losing the first and fourth quarters by a combined 29 points.
The injury report did Golden State no favors. They had to play without Tip Hayes and Monique Billings, two important rotation pieces. As a result, Golden State’s defense suffered, surrendering 95 points, 40 of which came in the paint. That kind of defensive performance would surely sink them in Thursday’s rematch.
While there are still things to iron out, the Liberty won’t complain about Tuesday’s result. A 28-point win where they dominated the paint, shot 40% from three, and dished out 30 assists is to be expected of a title team. But despite the 4-0 record, concerns remain. Sabrina Ionescu has struggled so far, and scored just eight points against the Valks. It seems the adjustment to new backcourt mate Natasha Cloud has been rougher than expected for Sab, though it does work extremely well for the Liberty.
The Liberty are 18-point favorites at home and are -2800 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 163.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Liberty vs. Valkyries
The outcome of this one isn’t in doubt. The Liberty torch teams on offense while putting the clamps down on defense. That equation doesn’t bode well for an expansion squad still figuring out roles and chemistry. It could get even uglier if Tip and Nique remain out of the game.
The Liberty are winning this game, barring utter disaster. Can the Valkyries cut into the 28-point margin from the last game? Or will things get worse?
Picks for Liberty vs. Valkyries
New York Liberty -18 (-110)
I’m not counting on much improvement for Golden State in this one. While the Liberty have concerns, their overwhelming talent level is too much for this nascent franchise to handle. If you manage to contain Breanna Stewart, then Jonquel Jones is there. Contain them both and Sabrina Ionescu is waiting to break out. Somehow contain all three and Natasha Cloud or Marine Johannes could start diming everyone up and hitting wild shots. There’s no solving this problem with an expansion team.
They could get going from deep, and Temi Fagbenle can control paint traffic enough to make this one close. But I’m not counting on it.
