The Phoenix Mercury are resurgent. The same cannot be said for the Chicago Sky.
The Mercury are off to a 3-1 start behind their new star pairing of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas. The duo boasts as much versatility as any star duo in the league. They’re all over the place offensively and stalwart defensively. This Phoenix franchise has yet to have a winning season since 2021, but they seem likely to get over the hump this year. Now, they face the team that beat them in that 2021 WNBA Finals series.
Things haven’t been the same in Chicago since that Finals run. Candace Parker isn’t coming to save them anytime soon, and this team is on the fast track to the lottery. New head coach Tyler Marsh might be over his head trying to build an identity out of this team. You could argue they have the worst offense AND defense in the league, and there’s no fixing that. It’s going to be a long, long season for Chicago fans.
The Mercury are 7.5-point favorites at home and are -325 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 159.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Mercury vs. Sky
I understand our oddsmakers being conservative with Sky lines. They can’t have a -30 net rating all season long, but against a quality Mercury team, the 7.5-point spread feels too small to me.
These Mercury will walk over the Sky regardless. The question becomes by how much.
Pick for Mercury vs. Sky
Phoenix Mercury -7.5 (-105)
I’d be pretty surprised if this were anything other than a double-digit win for the Mercury. The Sky don’t have an answer for this elite Mercury defense or the personnel to stop the Sabally-Thomas duo on offense. Perhaps Angel Reese can turn her scoring around or Ariel Atkins can get things going in a big way, but I’m not counting on it.
The Sky have lost their three games by 13, 25, and 35 points. Until I see them play a competitive contest, I’m going to bet against it.
Under 159.5 (-112)
There’s a good chance this Mercury defense wipes Chicago off the map. Not a single player on the Sky averages double-digit points. I’m concerned that the lack of advantage creation from any place on the floor leaves them taking tough shot after tough shot, and those simply haven’t been falling for them.
Conversely, this Mercury offense has been struggling. They’ve felt the absence of Kahleah Copper and have suffered from a lack of offensive depth. That concern should be mitigated upon her return, but she’s not back in time for this one. If the Sky can do one thing, it’s pull down defensive rebounds. I think they’ll end enough possessions to keep the Mercury from going totally wild in the scoring column to push the total over, but it still won’t be a close contest.
