It was an offseason of significant changes for the Washington Mystics and the Phoenix Mercury. This contest gives them a great chance to see how they size up.
Washington had the third, fourth and sixth picks in the 2025 Draft, marking a major roster overhaul. Sonia Citron looks like a ready-made scorer, Kiki Iriafen is already a walking double-double, and Georgia Amoore projects to be a major contributor next year after suffering a torn ACL. It’s a promising group around Brittney Sykes, who is handing out buckets left and right in the early going.
The Phoenix Mercury have to be pleased with their offseason as well. Their new star pairing of Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally is off to an excellent start. The two have size, can handle the ball, and defend awfully well. Coach Nate Tibbetts has a deep roster of athletic defenders to match up with, and when it’s all said and done, Phoenix may have the top defense in the league.
The Mercury are four-point favorites at home and are -198 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 161.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Mystics vs. Mercury
I’m all over this new-look Mystics team. Sykes plays with an incredible edge and has doubled her PPG from last season, in addition to superb defense. The rookie duo is off to a great start.
But having rookies as two of your top three rotation players is risky. Even a steady shooter like Citron and a two-way paint presence like Iriafen will sometimes struggle in this league. Sunday could be a rude awakening against a deep and talented defense full of veterans.
Pick for Mystics vs. Mercury
Phoenix Mercury -4 (-108)
With the aforementioned defense and star power of Thomas and Sabally, this Mercury team is a sneaky contender. The same cannot be said for the Mystics.
While Sykes’s two-way play and Citron and Iriafen’s scoring could swing this game, this team will have to figure out how to stop Phoenix. Their inverted pick-and-roll game with crafty wings and guards makes them challenging to cover. This is a pretty generous spread for a Mystics team that is six points behind the Mercury in net rating.
Under 161.5 Total Points (-110)
On one hand, you have a good Mystics offense against an elite Mercury defense. On the other hand, you have an OK Mercury offense against an OK Mystics defense. To me, this adds up to an under.
To be clear, Sabally and Thomas will continue to eat. With Kahleah Copper still out of the picture, the Mercury lack scoring depth. It’s not a problem so big that they will lose to this Mystics squad, but it’s enough to keep them capped around the 80-point mark.
