I love a matchup between rebuilding teams. I call them measuring stick contests. Nothing tells you where your team is better than playing other teams at your level. The Dallas Wings and Atlanta Dream are certainly on a similar level for now.
Atlanta is building on a new core four with beautifully balanced offensive responsibility. Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Brionna Jones, and Brittney Griner average between 24.9 and 26.1 points per 100 possessions. Jones and Griner, the two newcomers, are adjusting well to life in Atlanta so far. The defense remains a work in progress, but I have a hard time believing a team with Griner will continue to give up 88 points per game.
The Wings, on the other hand, may be in the running for the No. 1 pick again. They struggle to defend as a team while Arike Ogunbowale and Paige Bueckers have yet to coexist offensively. Some of the role players are good, to be sure, but they can only go as far as their star backcourt takes them. Ogunbowale will have to adjust to being 1A/1B, and Bueckers has to adjust to the league itself. It may be a while before they start looking good.
The Dream are 5.5-point favorites on the road and are -250 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 169 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Dream vs. Wings
The Dream is not a perfect team, that’s for sure. The backcourt misses a lot of shots, and the defense has yet to gel. It may never gel. Even then, it should be enough to take down this Wings team.
Not scoring and not defending is a rough equation. Right now, the Wings rank ninth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. That will be a problem against a Dream squad that can rack up the points and has a defense ready to be exploited by a competent offense. Unless they can suddenly pull things together, this could be a rough night.
Pick for Dream vs. Wings
Atlanta Dream -5.5 (-110)
This isn’t me trusting the Dream as much as fading the Wings. When checking in on Dallas, it’s looking rough right now. I doubt it can contain Gray and Howard in the backcourt or Jones and Griner in the frontcourt. On top of that, if Bueckers and Ogunbowale don’t figure things out, they’re in for some trouble.
At home after two tight contests against the Fever, I’m backing Atlanta to pull this one out.
Over 169 Total Points (-110)
Considering the state of these defenses, I’m counting on points on the board. The Dream have been putting them on the board, and struggling to keep them off. Even with the Wings searching for offensive answers in the early going, I think they can get enough in this one to make it a high-scoring affair.
