Napoli has had quite the roller coaster over the last couple of seasons. In 2022-23, it topped the Serie A for the first time since 1990. Then, in 2023-24, the Ciucciarelli stumbled to a 10th-placed finish in the table and their relationship with star striker Victor Osimhen — who finished eighth in the 2023 Ballon d’Or rankings, the best finish ever for a Nigerian player — imploded. Osimhen sought a move to an English or a Saudi club before settling for a loan move to Turkish outfit Galatasaray, where he has been incredible, scoring 25 goals in 29 matches for the Süper Lig leaders. Winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia left for Paris Saint-Germain during the winter transfer window.
Despite losing Osimhen, Napoli surprisingly leads the Serie A headed into the final match day. The Ciucciarelli have not lost since a 2-1 defeat to Como on February 23, and prior to that, back-to-back defeats to Lazio in early December. Osimhen’s presence hasn’t been missed; Belgian striker Romelu Lukaku has turned back the clock with 23 goal contributions in Serie A.
Napoli can secure the Scudetto by matching or bettering Inter’s result tomorrow. The Ciucciarelli will host 14th-placed Cagliari, while Inter will travel to face Como, arguably the hottest club in Italy. Thanks to its easier fixture and one-point edge, Napoli is a -1000 favorite to win the title, with Inter at +600.
I’ve already broken down my favorite bets from tomorrow’s two matches, as well as taken a look at Inter’s match, but in this article, I’ll be taking a deeper dive into Napoli-Cagliari.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Napoli is a -650 favorite on the Moneyline, with Cagliari at +1300 and a draw at +600.
Cagliari at Napoli prediction, pick
Napoli’s situation differs quite dramatically from Inter’s in several ways. The Ciucciarelli control their own destiny, so all they have to do is win the match and the title is guaranteed, while the Nerazzuri might well pull some key players if Napoli has a late lead, regardless of its result. Also, while Inter will play in the Champions League final in Münich on Saturday, this will be the Ciucciarelli’s final game of the season. They also will not play in this summer’s Club World Cup — unlike the Nerazzuri — so Antonio Conte can be expected to field a full-strength XI, even though the veteran manager has been suspended for the finale.
Napoli will enter the final match in fairly poor form, having drawn each of its last two matches to allow Inter to tighten the gap to a point. The 2-2 draw against Genoa on May 11 was particularly disappointing, Genoa sits just 13th in the table and had been coming off three consecutive losses in the league. In that clash, the Ciucciarelli managed 1.7 expected goals’ worth of chances from their 22 shots, of which they got 10 on target. Genoa shot-stopper Benjamin Siegrist made eight saves in his only appearance with the club after arriving from Romanian side Rapid Bucureşti. Coming away with a 0-0 draw the following week after getting only two of their seven shots on target against 16th-place Parma must’ve been equally disappointing, but all that is behind now. Only the 90 minutes against Cagliari remain, and the Isolani have nothing to play for, sitting five points above the relegation zone.
The Sardinian side seem likely to end on the same number of points that they did in 2023-24, their first season back in the Serie A after being promoted in the first try of asking. That’s not a horrible place to be, especially for a club with a total squad market value of just 78.9 million Euros, but the Isolani’s defense has struggled recently, conceding two or more goals in four of their last six games and keeping clean sheets only against relegated Venezia and relegation-threatened Hellas Verona, who could still suffer the drop if they lose to Empoli, Lecce beats Lazio, and Parma picks up a point against Atalanta. While center backs José Luis Palomino and Adam Obert both rank in the top decile among defenders in Europe’s top five leagues in tackles, right-back Gabriele Zappa is a poor defender and doesn’t have the attacking capabilities to compensate. His poor tackling is one major reason why I’m backing former Manchester United man Scott McTominay to find the back of the net. On the bright side, the attack — led by youngster Roberto Piccoli, who attempted nine shots in Cagliari’s most recent match — is about a league-average unit.
For Napoli, both McTominay and Romelu Lukaku are in strong form, with the 32-year-old Belgian having scored in three of his last eight Serie A matches and McTominay netting eight times for club and country since the beginning of 2025. Then there’s the defense; Napoli has conceded just 27 goals this season, by far the fewest in the league, and ranks fifth in tackle percentage and third in opponent shot creating actions thanks to Giovanni di Lorenzo. The Isolanis will give it a good fight, but it won’t be enough; McTominay, Lukaku, and di Lorenzo will complete one of the more improbable titles in recent Serie A history.
