Of all of Europe’s top five leagues, Italy’s Serie A is defined most by its parity. In the Premier League, Manchester City has topped the table in six out of the last eight seasons, although it is Liverpool who will officially lift the trophy on Sunday. Paris Saint-Germain have won Ligue 1 in seven of the last eight seasons. Bayern Münich has established German supremacy in 12 of the last 13 seasons, and while La Liga has a little bit more diversity, it’s rare that a team besides Real Madrid and Barcelona wins the title.
That’s not quite true in Serie A, where the last five titles have been won by four different clubs. Juventus previously held a chokehold over the competition, winning nine straight titles from 2011-12 to 2019-20, but since then, Inter Milan has won twice, with AC Milan and Napoli claiming the Scudetto once each.
The 2024-25 Serie A will come down to the final match day, with Napoli holding a one-point edge over Inter with the title-deciding matches to happen tomorrow. Inter will travel to face surprising newcomers Como, while Napoli will host Cagliari. Thanks to their easier fixture and their edge, Napoli is a -1000 favorite to win the title, with Inter at +600.
I’ve already broken down my favorite bets from tomorrow’s two matches, but in this article, I’ll be taking a deeper dive into the Inter-Como match.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Inter is a -160 favorite on the Moneyline, with Como at +360 and a draw at +300.
Inter Milan at Como prediction, pick
How hard Inter will try in this match depends on the concurrent result in Naples. The Nerrazzuri’s focus is on the Champions League final on May 31 in Münich, where they will play their second continental final in three seasons after knocking Barcelona out of the competition in a 13-goal semifinal thriller earlier this month. The score in the Napoli-Cagliari match will particularly affect striker and club captain Lautaro Martínez, who has missed each of the last two games with a thigh injury. As long as he’s fit enough, Martínez will almost certainly start, but if the Ciucciarelli lead by multiple goals at half, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if Simone Inzaghi pulls his star at the break to prevent him from getting injured in a meaningless match. It’s also likely that star defender Alessandro Bastoni will rest.
Regardless of the mediocre form they’ve shown domestically in the past few weeks — last month, a string of three defeats in a week condemned them to second place in the league and dumped them unceremoniously out of the Coppa Italia, which was ultimately won by Bologna — the Nerrazzuri should be the clear favorites to get the job done tomorrow. Inter couldn’t take advantage of Napoli’s draw last week by only claiming a point against Lazio, but that match came with several important players sitting, with Martínez being joined on the bench by second-choice striker Mehdi Taremi shortly after halftime. Only generating 1.1 expected goals of chances against a mediocre defense for a likely Europa League-bound side wasn’t ideal, but the attack should be more clinical with Martínez leading the line.
That’s not to take anything away from Como, which has taken 13 points from its last five Serie A matches, tied for the best form in the division. The Lariani, coached by Spanish legend Cesc Fàbregas, have a strong squad led by young Argentine Nicolás Paz, who has notched a team-leading 14 domestic goal contributions at the age of 20, and goalkeeper Jean Butez, who has saved 16 of the 17 shots on target he has faced over his last five games. Even if its five consecutive wins and four consecutive clean sheets came against bottom-of-the-table sides, this season has to be considered a massive success for Como. The Nerrazzuri’s 2-0 triumph on December 23, the first time these two teams have met since 2003, was closer than the score line might’ve suggested, given the 1.6-0.3 expected-goal margin, and 42-year-old Pepe Reina — a worse shot-stopper than Butez — was between the sticks for the Lariani in that one.
It would surely be a storybook ending to Como’s fairytale season to oust the defending champions on the final day, stopping them from winning the Scudetto, but at least for the first half, this game matters more for Inter. The Lariani are guaranteed to finish 10th in the table, at least eight points behind AC Milan and at least two points ahead of Torino. The Nerrazzuri will go all-out in the first half, with Martínez netting, before realizing that Napoli will not be caught.
