Four of Europe’s top five leagues know their champions. Liverpool secured the Premier League long ago, Paris Saint-Germain did the same with Ligue 1, Bayern Münich reclaimed its throne from Bayer Leverkusen, and Barcelona held off Real Madrid to win La Liga. That just leaves Italy’s Serie A, where Napoli and Internazionale are separated by just one point headed into the final match day.
The southern squad has the edge, having accumulated 79 points from their 37 matches. Inter, which has led for much of the season but saw its treble hopes fade in dramatic fashion over the last couple of weeks with two losses in the league and elimination from the Coppa Italia, is one point behind but has a far superior goal difference.
On Friday, Inter will travel to face surprising newcomers Como, who sit a comfortable 10th in the table and have taken 13 points from their past five games, while Napoli hosts 14th-place Cagliari. If Napoli loses and Inter draws, a playoff match will be played at San Siro, and any other combination in which Inter betters Napoli’s result would result in Inter lifting the trophy, but as long as Napoli matches or betters Inter’s result, it will be the champion. Given its one-point edge and easier fixture, Napoli is a -1000 favorite to claim the Scudetto at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Inter at +600.
At DraftKings, you can bet on both games’ Moneyline, player prop bets, and more. Here’s my favorite bet from each of Friday’s two games.
First, let’s take a look at both:
Internazionale at Como, 2:45 p.m. ET, May 23
Cagliari at Napoli, 2:45 p.m. ET, May 23
Inter Milan Win and O2.5 Goals (+130)
For what it’s worth, I believe that the Nerrazzuri will do their part. Relative to each team’s expectations entering the season, Como has been undoubtedly a more impressive outfit than Inter, but the Lariani have been aided by having only had the league to focus on since being dumped out of the domestic cup in the first round. With the Champions League final still eight days away, it’s likely that Inter will field a strong enough team to beat Como comfortably even while prioritizing its top players’ fitness.
Inter’s attack has been in top form since Marcus Thuram returned from injury prior to the first leg of the Champions League semifinals. It’s probably not reasonable to expect the Nerrazzuri to score three goals like they did in each leg of the semifinal, but they’ve scored two goals in both of their Serie A matches since confirming their place in the Champions League final. Those two matches came with several of their most important players out of the squad — club captain Lautaro Martínez missed both games with a thigh injury but is expected to return on Friday and goalkeeper Yann Sommer sat out the first game — so Inter should be more on point than it looked against Torino.
Como goalie Jean Butez has been on fire in recent weeks, keeping four clean sheets in his last five games and saving 16 of 17 possible shots across that span. Overall, the 29-year-old Frenchman ranks a solid ninth in the Serie A in save percentage and hasn’t allowed multiple goals in a match since March 15. But those four clubs he recorded a clean sheet against — Lecce, Parma, Torino, and Genoa — all rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of shot-creating actions, while Inter ranks first. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a 2-1 Inter win.
Scott McTominay Anytime Goalscorer (+145)
It’s been a rough season for McTominay’s former club, Manchester United, but not for him. Whether or not he was the reason why the Red Devils finished better than the trophy-less 16th place they’re likely to be condemned to this season, it’s clear that escaping the Premier League has been tremendous for the Scotsman. Not only has he started all but one of the matches in which he’s appeared — certainly not something that he could say during his United stint — he’s notched a career-high 15 goal contributions and ranks in the 98th percentile among midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues in goals.
WIth the exception of a 2-1 loss to the Lariani on February 23, Napoli has been fully invincible in 2025. That’s thanks in no small part to McTominay, who has netted eight times for the club since the start of the calendar year, including an impressive stretch of five goals in three games between Matchweeks 32 and 34. Although he hasn’t found the back of the net in any of the last three matches, he’s been played in a more attacking position, seeing time at left wing in all three, which should generally give him more chances in the long run. Plus, he doesn’t need many chances, thanks to his clinical finishing; his 11 league goals this season have come from just 7.1 expected goals, and he ranks sixth in Serie A in goals minus expected goals.
McTominay should have no problem netting against Cagliari, which has given up two or more goals in four of its last six matches in what has been a brutal finishing stretch of the season. The Isolani haven’t proven themselves capable of defending against any side that’s not relegation fodder; the two clean sheets that they’ve kept in their last six games came against 15th-place Hellas Verona and 19th-place Venezia. Against top-level sides, the results have been rough: three goals against Inter and three against Como. Shot-stopper Elia Caprile — coincidentally on loan from Napoli — owns just a 70.1% save percentage, making him about average among goalies in Europe’s top five leagues, and his defense hasn’t helped. All in all, Cagliari has allowed the fifth-most goal-creating actions in Serie A.
