The offseason was highly productive for the Los Angeles Sparks and the Phoenix Mercury. The former managed to acquire star Aces guard Kelsey Plum, while the latter acquired former MIP Satou Sabally in addition to former MVP and DPOY runner-up Alyssa Thomas. But despite the big acquisitions, there is quite a gulf between these squads.
Los Angeles was one of the worst teams in the league last year, and hasn’t won a game since the Wubble in 2020. The hope is that Plum can lead a new era alongside veteran All-Star Dearica Hamby and the promising sophomore duo of Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson. A main obstacle to that plan right now is Brink’s recovery from ACL surgery.
The Mercury don’t have the cleanest bill of health either. Former Finals MVP and four-time All-Star Kahleah Copper remains out with knee surgery, leaving Sabally and the newcomer Thomas to pick up the slack. While those two are more than capable of carrying a squad, they’ll be patiently waiting to see how their star trio meshes together. Phoenix is on a quest to get above .500 for the first time since 2021.
The Mercury are 5.5-point favorites at home and are at -230 on the moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 162.5 points. Let’s take a look at the best bets for this contest.
Prediction for Sparks vs. Mercury
The problems for the Sparks in this game lie in the paint. Without Cameron Brink, their rim protection is sorely lacking. Sabally and Thomas have size and athleticism that serve well to limit paint attempts. On top of that, coach Nate Tibbetts seemed to like the minutes from the imposing Kalani Brown.
Kelsey Plum can light it up from distance, for sure. But she will face pressure from the Mercury’s backcourt on defense. Wily veteran Sami Whitcomb and the young rookie Monique Akoa-Makani could cause problems for the Plum Dawg. And if Plum struggles, it will be a long night for the Sparks. I’m picking the Mercury to win this one and cover the 5.5-point spread.
Pick for Sparks vs. Mercury
Under 162.5 Total Points (-110)
On top of the spread, this one smells like a low-scoring affair. As I said before, I think this Mercury defense is set up well to contain Plum and Company. On top of that, Phoenix is shorthanded offensively.
Sure, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally can go off, but Thomas isn’t quite the go-off type in the scoring column. Sabally is quite talented, but not the kind to lead a squad to 90+ points. If we’re going to experience a rough-and-tumble kind of game, we might as well bet it accordingly.
